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   Author  Topic: Move 30  (Read 1965 times)
jdb
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Move 30
« on: Apr 25th, 2008, 6:04pm »
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Chessandgo plays:
 
30w De2n Cf2n Rf1n Cf3e
 
 
This move was looked at (somewhat) on the previous move.
 
I recommend,
 
30b Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w
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mistre
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #1 on: Apr 25th, 2008, 8:43pm »
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Woo hoo! Chessandgo didn't see the block!
 
I agree that JDB's move would be strong, but we might want to compare to:
 
Rf2n dg2w df2w ce7
 
 
« Last Edit: Apr 25th, 2008, 9:29pm by mistre » IP Logged

99of9
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #2 on: Apr 25th, 2008, 9:44pm »
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We need to be careful of his elephant.  Mistre, I think your move might result in some kind of hostage.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #3 on: Apr 25th, 2008, 10:49pm »
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OK, now that I'm finally caught up on the Postal Mixer, I have some time to look at this game.  I wish I had spent the time earlier.  Sad  The attacking move 30b Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w that I earlier liked superficially seems completely neutralized by 31w Rc1e Rb1e Rf1w Re1n.  It may even be possible for chessandgo to play 31w Rc1e Rb1e Ha4e Ed4n, with an attack stronger than our own.  Can anyone propose some attacking lines for us?  When I play against c2, I find that the dog alone isn't strong enough to to get anything done.
 
We have two other main strategic options.  One is to swarm in the west after all with something like 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s.  This swarm loses a bit of its bite now that chessandgo has shored up his f3 trap, but it may still be worth a try.  But if that doesn't look promising and the attack on c2 is impotent, we may not have anything better than 30 Rf2s dg2w De3s ed3e rf3x.  Yes, this loses our rabbit and leaves us with a lesser attack on f3 than if we had just sacrificed our rabbit and gone for it on move 28, but sometimes you have to admit a mistake (move 29) and cut your losses.  It appears to me now that move 29 was just a huge waste of time.  Chessandgo has gotten his weak f3 trap shored up while we have gotten... a useless dog on g2.
 
The culprit is obviously time.  Some of my energy last move was drawn away by the Postal Mixer, to say nothing of the brouhaha surrounding bothbashing.  I would have had to analyze only an hour or so longer then to feel the way I do now.  Strategically the culprit is wavering.  We should have saved the rabbit and swarmed the west, because those two actions go hand in hand, and neither works without the other.  OR we should have forgotten the rabbit and attacked the east.  As it stands, I think that trying to do both has given away most of our advantage.  Indeed, with our loss of time, chessandgo may now be better poised to swarm in the west than we are.
 
Ah, well, live and learn. Smiley
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #4 on: Apr 26th, 2008, 12:33pm »
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I thought about a "silent" move just preparing the right-wing swarm.  
Something like:
 
30b hd6w hc6w dd7s ra8s
 
The question is - could we afford now a move with no direct threat, just regrouping?...
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #5 on: Apr 26th, 2008, 2:42pm »
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The attacking move 30b Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w that I earlier liked superficially seems completely neutralized by 31w Rc1e Rb1e Rf1w Re1n.

Hmmm... but aren't we back in the saddle ( well, at least partly...) after
 
31b Rd1e dd2s Rc1w dd1w
 
?
 
or, in more general terms 31b Rd1e dd2s xxxx xxxx. And if Jean attempts to blockade our dog, maybe we'll be able to launch another attack in the eastern half ( let's say something like DCR/DRR ). It may take a long time though and he'll complicate for sure...
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #6 on: Apr 26th, 2008, 4:42pm »
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on Apr 26th, 2008, 2:42pm, Soter wrote:
Hmmm... but aren't we back in the saddle ( well, at least partly...) after
 
31b Rd1e dd2s Rc1w dd1w

I'm not sure what we're in charge of in that line if he re-occupies d1 and d2 with rabbits.
 
Quote:
And if Jean attempts to blockade our dog, maybe we'll be able to launch another attack in the eastern half ( let's say something like DCR/DRR ). It may take a long time though and he'll complicate for sure...

Chessandgo can switch his horse to the east faster than we can get another dog there.  I also can think of lots of plans that will work if chessandgo just gives us a few moves to get rolling.  But he's got an elephant and horse not too many steps from taking over c6, so we don't (didn't?) have much time to waste.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #7 on: Apr 26th, 2008, 6:59pm »
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on Apr 26th, 2008, 12:33pm, UruramTururam wrote:
I thought about a "silent" move just preparing the right-wing swarm.  
Something like:
 
30b hd6w hc6w dd7s ra8s
 
The question is - could we afford now a move with no direct threat, just regrouping?...

What is the advantage to keeping our horse on b6 instead of b5?  I don't mean that as a rhetorical question: I'm actually curious.
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #8 on: Apr 27th, 2008, 1:54am »
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on Apr 26th, 2008, 6:59pm, Fritzlein wrote:

What is the advantage to keeping our horse on b6 instead of b5?  I don't mean that as a rhetorical question: I'm actually curious.

 
I didn't mind to "keep" it there, but to advance it twice next move along with the other right wing pieces - full swarm against the trap with our rabbit.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #9 on: Apr 27th, 2008, 10:51am »
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Sorry my first post in this thread was a such a downer.  I hope that my tone hasn't discouraged people from posting, for fear that I will criticize whatever move we choose as a huge mistake.  But actually I'm not upset with the team, I'm upset with myself.  It's fine when the team has a different strategic take than I do and I get outvoted.  In this case I actually voted for the move that won, but I wish I hadn't.  So I'm griping at myself, not anybody else.
 
What I need to do is focus on the future, not the past.  However we got to this position, here we are.  If I have some time today I will try to seriously evaluate the potential of a swarm.  If it is promising, we should do it, but if it is just going to get us into trouble, we should give up our advanced rabbit now.  Also we need to continue to explore other options creatively.
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mistre
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #10 on: Apr 27th, 2008, 10:40pm »
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I apologize for my premature excitement earlier.  It appears I have been proven wrong.  Looking at it more, Chessandgo can delay our dog from taking C2 long enough to launch an E-H attack in the West.  We would have to enter a deadly race game.
 
Having said that - I was not for our selected Move 28.  I wanted the Dog charge to play for the f3 trap.  Instead we voted for a compromise move that was definitely worse than either of the two stronger options.  I am still not convinced that a swarm in the West was going to work, but it was my 2nd choice.
 
Looking back at the thread for move 28, the best two options we were going to revote on - until the 3rd one got thrown in too.  It's too bad we did not recognize it as inferior at the time, and then we could have avoided that option. (Fritz, among others, lobbied for its inclusion).
 
Now it looks like our best move is to give up the rabbit now and play for positioning around f3.  Fritz's proposed move was the best I could find:
 
30b Rf2s dg2w De3s ed3e rc3x (not rf3x)
 
At least this move will force Chessandgo to defend and prevent a western swarm.  
 
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #11 on: Apr 29th, 2008, 3:49pm »
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I just looked at a straight dog push back to e5.  De3n ed3e rc3x De4n ee3n.
 
I get resulting positions with a gold E+D around f6, The silver e freezing that D.  The horses offsetting in the west, and room to advance eastern rabbits to where our dog is.  If the gold horse crosses, the silver e is close and the silver horse is free on the east side.
 
Can somebody look at this and see if this is playable?
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The_Jeh
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #12 on: Apr 29th, 2008, 4:44pm »
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Has 30b Cg3e dg2n De3n ed3e rc3x been suggested yet? Perhaps it could keep c&g busy? It threatens immediate capture of the gold rabbit and forking of the gold dog on e6 unless the proper action is taken. The fact that our dog has a grip on the cat on the lee side of the action also constrains c&g's response choices. I've spent only a minimal amount of time looking ahead, but it doesn't look too bad so far.
« Last Edit: Apr 29th, 2008, 4:46pm by The_Jeh » IP Logged
RonWeasley
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #13 on: May 2nd, 2008, 12:17pm »
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I think we're all busy playing the Owl Mixer.  Let's wrap this up this weekend and plan on a vote starting Monday.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 30
« Reply #14 on: May 2nd, 2008, 3:25pm »
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on Apr 27th, 2008, 10:40pm, mistre wrote:
Having said that - I was not for our selected Move 28.  I wanted the Dog charge to play for the f3 trap.  Instead we voted for a compromise move that was definitely worse than either of the two stronger options.  I am still not convinced that a swarm in the West was going to work, but it was my 2nd choice.
 
Looking back at the thread for move 28, the best two options we were going to revote on - until the 3rd one got thrown in too.  It's too bad we did not recognize it as inferior at the time, and then we could have avoided that option. (Fritz, among others, lobbied for its inclusion).

Yes, I lobbied for inclusion of all moves involved in the tied vote, and I will do so next time we have a tie, even if that means including a terrible option in the run-off.  It goes counter to the voting spirit to say that a bad move had better be excluded because the Mob might be too dumb and vote for it.  Indeed, the fact that we preferred the move that almost got left off the ballot to both of the other two moves proves that it would have been a bad mistake procedurally to leave it out of the runoff.
 
Whether our move 28 was a mistake on the board is an entirely different question from from whether it should have been on the runoff ballot.  I'll be curious to come back to this position five years from now when our understanding of Arimaa has matured, and see which of the top three candidates we prefer then.  Certainly it is a position I don't feel I have a good grip on.  For the present, however, I haven't changed my ordering of the top three from the ballot I cast in the re-vote.  In the first vote I ordered the choices as you did: dog charge first, swarm middle, compromise last.  But on further consideration the rabbit seemed too valuable to give up, so I reversed my preferences, and put the dog charge last.
 
I don't think move 28 was a mistake at all, or if it was, it was quite a minor one.  The only way move 28 was bad is if our rabbit was worth less than four extra steps in an attack on f3.  Since our dog charge on move 28 wouldn't have won any material, not even a rabbit, I still see our rabbit as more valuable than that time.  In the context of preserving our rabbit and swarming the west, move 28 actually didn't waste any time: both our elephant and dog moved towards where they wanted to be.  Also our flank dog distracted chessandgo's elephant one step towards the center, away from defending a western swarm.  If we had swarmed the west on move 29, he would have had to give that step back, returning his elephant west to stop our horse.  
 
Move 29 was the true waste of time, because we actually put our dog on a worse square.  What is it doing on g2?  If we had first distracted his elephant and horse with a swarm, then we would have wanted our dog on g3 eventually, where The_Jeh is now proposing we move it.
 
My vote for move 30 is presently 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s, swarming in the west after all.  It looks like our threat still might be strong enough and quick enough to prevent chessandgo from getting his horse across to g3, and the switch with our horse makes it complicated for chessandgo to attack c6 with EH, since we'll happily rush defenders forward behind our horse (that's part of the swarm!) and his EH can only control two sides of c6.
 
In fact, despite my badmouthing our dog on g2, it does serve one strategic purpose: it makes it more dangerous for chessandgo to meet our western swarm with a western swarm.  If he starts advancing rabbits in the west, his c2 backside becomes more vulnerable to our dog.
 
Well, I guess this lobbying for a swarm isn't very convincing without some lines.  If I don't have time to post lines, I won't expect to persuade anyone.  I'll vote for the swarm, perhaps in error, perhaps by myself.  If I do have time to work out some lines, I'll share my impressions of them this weekend.  If it doesn't look good I'll vote with you on the belated f3 attack.
« Last Edit: May 2nd, 2008, 3:29pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

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