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Topic: Move 33 (Read 15359 times) |
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99of9
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #45 on: Jun 6th, 2008, 9:46pm » |
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on Jun 6th, 2008, 6:04pm, warren wrote:
Regarding
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w rd4w rc4n Eb4e
what about
34b Da3n hb3w De3e ed3e
35w Ec4w rc5s rc4s rc3x Eb4e
35b Da4n ha3n Da5n ha4n
If instead he
35w Ec4w Eb4s Df3n Rb2e
we swarm his c3 trap as in other lines. |
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If he played 35w rb4s Ec4w rb3e rc3x Eb4s
I think it's too late for a decent swarm - we're likely to lose another piece on top of the rabbit we gave up.
Another option for our reply after a rabbit flip would be to give up the dog for a decent rabbit threat:
34b Da3n hb3w rb7s rb6s
35w Hf2s dg2w df2n df3x Hf1n
35b rb4s rb3e rc3s ha3e
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99of9
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Re: Move 33a
« Reply #46 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 5:26am » |
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on Jun 4th, 2008, 11:29pm, 99of9 wrote:Another option to analyze:
33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s
That is my bot's favourite at 12 ply (but it's still a pretty hopeless bot, so beware!) |
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Gnobby returns to this move at 16 ply (it took almost 40 times as long as 15 ply, so I'm going to stop it now...)
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warren
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Re: Move 33a
« Reply #47 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 7:36am » |
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on Jun 7th, 2008, 5:26am, 99of9 wrote:
Gnobby returns to this move at 16 ply (it took almost 40 times as long as 15 ply, so I'm going to stop it now...) |
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Perhaps try asking it to analyze the position after 33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s?
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warren
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #48 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 8:33am » |
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The following two lines start out with similar themes.
The Gnobby line:
33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Eb4s Re2w Rg1w
34b Rd2e ec2e Re2s ed2e
The AM line:
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b De3e ed3e ee3w rb7s
On 34b, they diverge, with our elephant being more aggressive in the Gnobby line than the AM line. At first I wondered whether this divergence was do to the 33b moves themselves or the later moves, but it seems like it may be the original moves. The tactical reason that the Gnobby 34b doesn't work after AM's 33b is that in the AM line, there's a gold rabbit on c2, so
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b ed3s Re2s ed2e xxxx
is met with
35w Eb3e hb2n Ec3e hb3e hc3x
capturing the horse and blocking the goal threat at the same time.
This tactical difference is what allows for the better 34b which leads me to currently support
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s.
In my continuing efforts to be a devil's advocate against the popular 33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s, I think I'll try searching for good responses he might have against that.
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warren
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #49 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 9:33am » |
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After
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s (arimaa_master)
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s (The jeh)
34b De3e ed3e ee3w rb7s
35w Df3n Rc1e Da3n Da4e
35b ed3e rd4s dd5w dc5s
36w Db4n Eb3n Eb4s dc4w (Warren)
The best continuation I see (other than giving up our dog) is
36b ee3n Df4n ee4e ce7s (Warren)
37w Eb3e Ec3w rd3wx Db5w
37b Df5nx ef4n ef5w ee5w
38w Eb3w hb2n hb3ex Ea3e
38b ed5w ec5w db4e dc4n
39w Hf2s dg2w df2nx Hf1n
which leaves us down a horse for a cat, though we do have a dog hostage.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 7th, 2008, 10:12am by warren » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #50 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 1:46pm » |
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Warren, thank you so much for maintaining the analysis tree this turn. It is helping me get up to speed, since there has been so much discussion.
on Jun 6th, 2008, 7:00am, warren wrote:| Update: can someone with a bot please ask it to analyze what he might do after 33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s? Perhaps there's a strong counter that we've missed so far. |
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I analyzed arimaa_master's move with Bomb's help, and found it mostly a distraction. Even though we are getting closer to the type of position at which computers excel, with abundant capture threats and goal threats, Bomb still can't see deeply enough, and has poor enough positional judgment, that I still have found it useful only as a double-check on hand analysis, and a weak one at that.
I'm going to analyze arimaa_master's move again without Bomb (now that I have moved in all my neglected Postal Mixer games (How can you play so many, arimaa_master?)). However, since you asked for a computer opinion, I let Bomb run for a couple of hours on the position after 33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s. The results:
12 steps, -1.63, rd4e Ec4e Ed4s dd5s
13 steps, -1.77, Ec4w rd4w Eb4s rc4w
14 steps, -1.89, Ec4w rd4w Eb4s rc4w
15 steps, didn't finish in 2:19, previous move evaluated -1.95
If I finish with arimaa_master's move with Arimaa time to spare, I'll take a look at Gnobot's move.
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warren
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #51 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 4:19pm » |
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on Jun 7th, 2008, 1:46pm, Fritzlein wrote:
However, since you asked for a computer opinion, I let Bomb run for a couple of hours on the position after 33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s. The results:
14 steps, -1.89, Ec4w rd4w Eb4s rc4w
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Hmm, it looks like we lose a rabbit or worse after
33b Da3n hb3w dd7s dd6s (99's bot, 12 and 16 ply)
34w Ec4w rd4w Eb4s rc4w (jdb)
34b rb7s rb6s rb4e dd5s (99)
These moves were already in the analysis tree, but I had neglected to think sufficiently about what would happen afterwards until your posting of that bot analysis directed me to it.
I therefore no longer like the above 33b.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #52 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 5:36pm » |
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Despite much effort, I couldn't get the position to work out in our favor after
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b De3e ed3e rd4s rd3s
35w Rc1e Rg1w Rf1w Df3n
so my initial feeling that chessandgo is on the ropes has faded. However, I think we may have a workable alternative to our 34b, namely dd5w dc5s rb7s rb6s. This alternative also threatens goal, so our dog is spared for another turn. More importantly, it threatens to set up a semi-permanent defense of c3 consisting of our dog on c4 and rabbit on d3. That would free our elephant to work on d3, initially to save our dog but soon to take control and start capturing. Also it could devolve into an insane goal race, as in the following line:
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b dd5w dc5s rb7s rb6s
35w Re2w Da3n Rb1w Ra2n
35b De3e ed3e rd4s ra8s
36w Da4n Da5n Da6e Ra3n
36b dc4s dc3n Rc2n ee3s
37w Df3w Db6n cc7s cc6x Db7e
37b ee2s Rd2e dc4e rd3s
38w De3w hb2w Eb3s Rc1e
38b Re2n ee1n rb5s rb4s
39w Rc3n Dd3w rd2n Dc3s
39b ee2w Dc2n ed2w rd3s
40w Hf2w rd2n He2w Ra4n
40b Rc4w Dc3x dd4w dc4n dc5w
and Silver wins. Of course many improvements will be possible for both sides, but it was such a fun variation I thought I would share. Anyway, the line is illustrative insofar as our 34b limits the active plans available to Gold, and goal race is probably his best bet. If he tries to hold back our rabbit instead,
33b dd7s dd6s ec2n ec3e
34w Rb2e Ec4w hb3s Eb4s
34b dd5w dc5s rb7s rb6s
35w De3n rd4n De4w Da3n
35b ed3e Re2s ee3s dc4n
seems to leave us a playable position, in particular the bloodbath
36w Eb3e hb2n Ec3n hb3e hc3x
36b Hf2n ee2e Cg3n Hf3x dg2n
37w Ec4s dc5s Ec3e dc4s dc3x
37b Cg4w dg3n Cf4s Cf3x dg4w
is nearly winning for us because of the weak defense in Gold's southeast corner.
For the moment I am going to consider the position after
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b dd5w dc5s rb7s rb6s
favorable to us, and look at Gold's alternatives on 34w. My hunch is that if he can't afford to take our horse hostage on 34w, we ought to be able to wriggle free without material loss, but I've been wrong before (on this move, even!).
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #53 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 5:45pm » |
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In this part of the tree
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s (arimaa_master)
34w Ec4w rd4w rc4n Eb4e (mistre)
34b Da3n hb3w rb7s rb6s (99)
35w Hf2s dg2w df2n df3x Hf1n
35b rb4s rb3e rc3s ha3e
35b is illegal. I think 99of9 misinterpreted mistre's move as flipping the rabbit to b5, rather than to c4.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #54 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 6:58pm » |
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on Jun 6th, 2008, 6:04pm, warren wrote:
Regarding
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w rd4w rc4n Eb4e
what about
34b Da3n hb3w De3e ed3e
35w Ec4w rc5s rc4s rc3x Eb4e
35b Da4n ha3n Da5n ha4n |
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This line looks good to me. Our extra cat is worth more than his dog hostage, because (so it seems to me) he can't get enough play with his elephant to stop us from eventually freeing our hostage. Also I don't see how Gold can profitably deviate on 35w. So this means 34w doesn't refute 33b, nor does anything else at the moment. However, even after looking at it for several hours, I still feel that that I have barely scratched the surface of the complexity of the position after our move 33b.
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99of9
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Re: Move 33Yes
« Reply #55 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 7:10pm » |
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on Jun 7th, 2008, 5:45pm, Fritzlein wrote:In this part of the tree
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s (arimaa_master)
34w Ec4w rd4w rc4n Eb4e (mistre)
34b Da3n hb3w rb7s rb6s (99)
35w Hf2s dg2w df2n df3x Hf1n
35b rb4s rb3e rc3s ha3e
35b is illegal. I think 99of9 misinterpreted mistre's move as flipping the rabbit to b5, rather than to c4. |
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Yes, you're right, sorry.
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Soter
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #56 on: Jun 7th, 2008, 11:45pm » |
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Quote:Despite much effort, I couldn't get the position to work out in our favor after
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b De3e ed3e rd4s rd3s
35w Rc1e Rg1w Rf1w Df3n
so my initial feeling that chessandgo is on the ropes has faded. |
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Fritz, I don't have enough free time to analyse the whole thing deeply, but doesn't 35b ee3w dd5w dc5s dc4s give us some hope?
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jdb
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #57 on: Jun 8th, 2008, 5:25am » |
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33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Rb2e Ra2e Rc2e Rb2e
When gold takes the horse hostage on 34w, the b2 horse cuts down on gold's ability to shuffle rabbits around to block the goal threats. There are other ways to shuffle the rabbits over, if this attempt doesn't work for tactical reasons.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #58 on: Jun 8th, 2008, 6:07am » |
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on Jun 8th, 2008, 5:25am, jdb wrote:33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Rb2e Ra2e Rc2e Rb2e
When gold takes the horse hostage on 34w, the b2 horse cuts down on gold's ability to shuffle rabbits around to block the goal threats. There are other ways to shuffle the rabbits over, if this attempt doesn't work for tactical reasons. |
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That 34w stops goal effectively, but the rabbit shuffle gives us time to contest both traps. In other lines our swarm was just a step or two too slow, but after
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Rb2e Ra2e Rc2e Rb2e
34b De3e ed3e rd4s rb7s
we should be able to hang on to our material advantage and therefore be in good shape.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 33
« Reply #59 on: Jun 8th, 2008, 8:18am » |
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on Jun 7th, 2008, 11:45pm, Soter wrote:| Fritz, I don't have enough free time to analyse the whole thing deeply, but doesn't 35b ee3w dd5w dc5s dc4s give us some hope? |
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Yes, that move gave me some hope, but I couldn't get it to work out after 36w Da3n Da4e Db4e Df4w. It seemed that I always ended up with Gold winning our dog, and us not being able to force either a goal or a material return. We were left with CR for D in all lines, and usually still having that rabbit on d2, but it never really loomed large. Gold has counterplay with his advanced dogs which our dog and horse can't oppose. Our elephant has to stop the opposing dogs, but a dog trade weakens our goal attack at the same time it stops Gold. I was hoping to force a trade of our advanced rabbit plus dog for both his dogs, leaving us a clear cat ahead, but I couldn't pull it off.
In short, it doesn't seem worth giving up the dog if we have lines that hold on to our material, in particular 34b dd5w dc5s rb7s rb6s. Of course I have not been able to verify my evaluation conclusively, but here are some variations from the position that you (and I) initially liked:
33b ec2e ed2n dd7s dd6s
34w Ec4w Rb2e hb3s Eb4s
34b De3e ed3e rd4s rd3s
35w Rc1e Rg1w Rf1w Df3n
35b ee3w dd5w dc5s dc4s
36w Da3n Da4e Db4e Df4w
. 36b Rc2s dc3s ed3w rb7s (trying to trade dogs)
. . 37w Hf2n dg2w Hf3w df2n df3x
. . . 37b Dc4n ec3n ce7w cd7s
. . . . 38w De4n De5w cd6e Dd5n
. . . . . 38b dc2n Rc1n dc3e Rc2n
. . . . . . 39w Re2e He3s He2n rd2e
. 36b Rc2s dc3s Rb1w hb2s
. . 37w Hf2n dg2w Hf3w df2n df3x
. . . 37b dc2n Rc1n Rc2w dc3s
. . . . 38w Eb3e dc2s Ec3s Dc4w
. . . . . 38b ed3n De4n ed4e ce7s
. . . . . . 39w Rb2n Db4e Dc4s Dc3e
. . . . . . . 39b De5e ee4n Df5n Df6x ee5e
. . . . . . . . 40w Ec2w dc1n dc2n dc3x Eb2e
. . . . . 38b ed3n ed4w Db4n ec4w
. . . . . . 39w De4w Dd4s Rb2n Re2e
. . . . . . . 39b Db5e eb4n Dc5n Dc6x eb5e
. . . . . . . . 40w Ec2w dc1n dc2n dc3x Eb2e
. . . 37b dc2w Rc1n Rc2n db2e
. . . . 38w Eb3s Rc3w dc2n Eb2e
. . . . . 38b Rb3n dc3w Rb4n db3n
. . . . . . 39w Dc4n Rb5w Dc5w Rh1n
. 36b Rc2s dc3s Ra2n hb2w (trying to make space)
. . 37w Hf2n dg2w Hf3w df2n df3x
. . . 37b dc2w Rc1n Rc2n db2e
. . . . 38w Rd1w Re1w Ra3n Ra4n
. . . . . 38b ha2s Rb1n ha1e rc8w
. . . . . . 39w Rb2w Ra2n Eb3s Ra3e
. . . . . . . 39b ed3n Dc4n ed4w rb7s
. . . . . . . . 40w He3w De4n De5w Dc5w
. . . . . . . . . 40b ec4e Rc3n Hd3w ed4s
. . . . . . . . . . 41w Rc4e Hc3n dc2n Eb2e
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| « Last Edit: Jun 8th, 2008, 8:19am by Fritzlein » |
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