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Topic: 2006 Postal Tournament (Read 6977 times) |
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99of9
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #90 on: Aug 13th, 2006, 8:19am » |
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on Aug 13th, 2006, 8:08am, RonWeasley wrote:| Only four undies remaining. By the end of the tournament, at most, we will be left with only one pair of undies. |
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unless there's a drawer 
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #91 on: Aug 13th, 2006, 5:39pm » |
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on Aug 13th, 2006, 8:18am, 99of9 wrote:| I think Adanac vs thorin will be pretty important too! |
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It's important, to be sure, but is it unclear? Do you not think thorin is clearly losing? I was scoring this as 70% won for Adanac. Maybe I'm a bit too hasty...
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| « Last Edit: Aug 13th, 2006, 5:40pm by Fritzlein » |
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #92 on: Aug 13th, 2006, 8:42pm » |
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on Aug 13th, 2006, 5:39pm, Fritzlein wrote:
It's important, to be sure, but is it unclear? Do you not think thorin is clearly losing? I was scoring this as 70% won for Adanac. Maybe I'm a bit too hasty...
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Even I'm not 70% confident about winning the game, although I am happy to be ahead by a rabbit
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #93 on: Aug 20th, 2006, 9:34am » |
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Now that I've been soundly spanked by 99of9, only three undies remain: 99of9, thorin, and Adanac.
[EDIT] and then there were two: only 99of9 and thorin...
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| « Last Edit: Aug 23rd, 2006, 8:47pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #94 on: Aug 23rd, 2006, 8:31pm » |
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Well, now that 99of9 has finished off one of the few remaining unclear games by beating Adanac, he is nearly guaranteed to finish undefeated. Therefore, for thorin to share first, he would have to beat Adanac, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.
Only nine games remain, and only jdb vs. Belbo is not lopsided materially. However, OLTI is generating strong goal threats against jdb despite material disadvtage, so that game must also be considered unclear. My latest standings:
99of9
thorin
Fritzlein
Adanac
Belbo
jdb / OLTI
RonWeasley
None of the remaining games appear headed for stalemate, so one way or another we should finish before the tournament time limit is up. It's a relief that the score formula will not enter into consideration. Hopefully it will never figure in a human game, because we will find a better substitute before the need arises.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #95 on: Sep 16th, 2006, 1:37pm » |
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Well, a few more game have finished up, and only four remain. Thorin is still losing to Adanac, but maybe that's one game I shouldn't call yet. The other three seem clear, with OLTI having come back from material deficit to force goal against jdb. Thus the final standings should be:
99of9 10
thorin 9 or 10
Fritzlein 9
Adanac 7 or 8
Belbo 7
OLTI 7
jdb 6
RonWeasley 6
purplebaron 6
Just for fun, compare this to what I said five months ago about the early tournament leaders:
JDB
Thorin
Belbo
RonWeasley
Adanac
Fritzlein
but even then I also said, "99of9 could still conceivably run the table and win all ten of his games, since he's equal or better in all but one."
Kudos to purplebaron for finishing with a positive score despite barely knowing the rules at the start of the tournament. I hope we'll see him more in live games now that he's done with the postal!
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #96 on: Oct 3rd, 2006, 10:26pm » |
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And that's all she wrote! Congratulations to 99of9 on a hard-earned perfect score, and undisputed first place. Thanks to everyone who played and pushed the frontiers of Arimaa theory another step forward.
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #97 on: Oct 4th, 2006, 4:50am » |
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Thanks.
I'll credit some of the success to the surpise value of the EHH setup. It's funny to think that you can surprise people in a postal, but I guess when we'd never seen it played out before, my ideas and plans were still concealed.
But other than that, you're right, it was just a lot of hard work. I often spent multiple sessions studying the same board position. Nevertheless, I still made severe errors - which people happily pounced on (for example blue22 and omar).
It was a fun tournament, thanks to everyone.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #98 on: Oct 19th, 2006, 5:16pm » |
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If my calculations are correct, the "committed play" payouts for the tournament should be
600 $30.94 99of9
589 $30.37 Fritzlein
584 $30.12 Adanac
583 $30.06 Belbo
573 $29.55 RonWeasley
548 $28.26 OLTI
541 $27.90 robinson
525 $27.07 jdb
515 $26.56 omar
486 $25.06 blue22
480 $24.75 thorin
415 $21.40 fritzlforpresident
355 $18.31 Ryan_Cable
297 $15.32 purplebaron
141 $7.27 dtj
137 $7.06 naveed
I note that everyone gets back more than the $20 entry fee, regardless of won/loss record, except people who lost one or more games by timeout or resignation. In other words, the intent to honor commitment was perfectly fulfilled.
I predicted that surviving an extra move would generally be worth about 4 cents, but due to lots of timeouts, it turned out to be worth about 5 cents. I also predicted that going undefeated would be worth a $24 payout, and it turned out to be worth a $30 payout, just like the year before, despite the changed rules. I guess the payout formula this year worked pretty darn well, and I suggest we use it again next year without modification.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 19th, 2006, 5:52pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #99 on: Oct 19th, 2006, 5:43pm » |
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The average game length of the 64 postal tournament games ending in goal or immobilization was 42 moves. This is a bit longer than the average of 38 moves per game over all HvH games. However, the average for live HvH games when both players are rated over 1700 is 44 moves, and since most of the players in this tourney were rated over 1700, that might in itself explain the slightly longer-than-average games.
I stand by my hypothesis that postal games generally take about as many moves as live games. The increased thinking time doesn't turn every game into a prolonged defensive struggle, as one might expect. On the contrary, it seems that number of moves to finish is inherent in the game more than in the time control.
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omar
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #100 on: Oct 21st, 2006, 11:57am » |
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Thanks for calculating the pay out Karl, but I will double check it before sending out the awards.
Thanks everyone for taking part and making the postal tournament so successful. These games are allowing us to experiment with new setups and strategies in ways we could never do with interactive games. I think we are learning a lot about Arimaa through these games and our interactive games will definitely start to change based on what we learn from these postal games.
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omar
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #101 on: Nov 16th, 2006, 10:57am » |
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I've sent out the winnings for the postal tournament using PayPal. If anyone did not get it please let me know through the Contact form. Thanks again to everyone who played.
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