Author |
Topic: 2006 Postal Tournament (Read 6975 times) |
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender: 
Posts: 5928
|
 |
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #75 on: May 29th, 2006, 1:31pm » |
 Quote  Modify
|
Omar, the link to frostlad vs. megamau from the game view of the Postal Tournament appears to be broken. When I click on the board it says "Expired Game".
[EDIT]
Never mind, it is properly linked now. Megamau had lost on time, but the page hadn't updated yet.
|
| « Last Edit: May 29th, 2006, 3:37pm by Fritzlein » |
 IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #76 on: May 29th, 2006, 2:13pm » |
Quote Modify
|
After three weeks, I couldn't resist updating the leaderboard. I discovered a way to increase my standing: delay moving in the games I am behind in (Adanac and 99of9) so my score doesn't worsen and move quickly where I am winning, so the position starts to look more clearly won for me. That strategem plus megamau timing out has temporarily vaulted me into first, while jdb and thorin have slipped slightly after starting out hot:
Fritzlein
Belbo
jdb
Adanac
thorin
99of9
99of9 is losing only to Omar, and Adanac is losing only to 99of9, so each of them is better positioned to end on 9 points than I am if they run the table. The other four of us on the leaderboard are each losing two games, so at the moment scoring 9 should tie for first, while 7 points might fall all the way into a tie for sixth. Omar and RonWeasley are high in the standings of completed games at +3 and +2 respectively, but either of them will have a hard time scoring above 6 wins and 4 losses (i.e. +2) total.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
99of9
Forum Guru
Gnobby's creator (player #314)
 
Gender:
Posts: 1413
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #77 on: May 29th, 2006, 9:23pm » |
Quote Modify
|
on May 29th, 2006, 2:13pm, Fritzlein wrote:| 99of9 is losing only to Omar |
|
I think I'm winning against Omar (or is this just trash talk?  ).
On the other hand I think Blue22 is still ahead of me.
I'm glad I've finally made you think hard in our game!
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #78 on: May 29th, 2006, 10:09pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Heheh, I had the colors reversed in your game with Omar, 99of9. I thought you were Silver. It seemed pretty astonishing that you thought you were winning, so checked it out again, and sure enough, Silver is clearly losing.
So that means you are in a good position to win all ten. Nicely done so far! True, lots of your games are still tense and could go either way, but I don't see you in trouble anywhere. Against blue22 I think your extra three rabbits fully compensate you for his extra horse. I scored that one as 50-50.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
99of9
Forum Guru
Gnobby's creator (player #314)
Gender:
Posts: 1413
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #79 on: Jun 13th, 2006, 3:16am » |
Quote Modify
|
99of9: Quote:| I think Blue22 is still ahead of me. |
|
on May 29th, 2006, 10:09pm, Fritzlein wrote:| Against blue22 I think your extra three rabbits fully compensate you for his extra horse. I scored that one as 50-50. |
|
I've finally finished a game! And interestingly, this one was the first to finish - mainly because blue22 plays so quickly. It looks like you were right Fritz, those rabbits came in handy!
99of9: Quote:| I think I'm winning against Omar |
|
I may not have been right about this one either. My unbalanced board at the time has come back to haunt me, and this is currently one of my toughest games to analyse.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #80 on: Jun 13th, 2006, 9:17am » |
Quote Modify
|
Now everyone in the tournament has finished at least one game. Indeed, everyone finished at least two games before I got a chance to comment that everyone had finished at least one game.  No one has finished all ten games yet, although we're getting very close.
I count that 45 of 95 total games have finished, so we're nearly halfway done by that measure. However, I still suspect at least one game will hit the 300-day time limit, in which case we are just over one third done with the tournament running time.
99of9, now that you have demolished blue22 (only two weeks after claiming you were losing :-P), you are definitely winning in all eight of your remaining games, and even in none of them. If we had a betting contest parallel to this tournament, I would have you over 50% to go undefeated.
|
| « Last Edit: Jun 14th, 2006, 1:16pm by Fritzlein » |
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #81 on: Jun 23rd, 2006, 10:52pm » |
Quote Modify
|
It's been about four weeks since my last guesstimate of who is winning the postal tournament, so it's time for another update. In a virtual tie for first place are myself, Belbo, and 99of9. Almost a full game behind us, also virtually tied, come Adanac, thorin, and JDB.
I've had the same six on my leaderboard for long time. The other players with the best chance of breaking into the top six are OLTI and frostlad.
99of9 remains the sole player who is losing no games, so even though he has only two wins so far to my five and Belbo's six, 99of9 is a good bet to win the tournament undefeated. The reason he isn't leading yet in my standings is that in several games his advantage is clear but not yet overwhelming, so I can't give him as much credit for those as for a clearly won position.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #82 on: Jul 10th, 2006, 2:21pm » |
Quote Modify
|
We have passed another milestone in the postal tournament with one player (dtj) now done with all of his games. In my guesswork standings Belbo and jdb have slipped down a bit out of the ties they were in, leaving my current leaderboard:
99of9
Fritzlein
Belbo
thorin
Adanac
jdb
RonWeasley
OLTI
It's possible no one outside these eight will win six games. Thorin is now losing only to Adanac, so thorin has a legitimate shot at second place with nine wins, although he has several unclear positions.
Adanac is the player with the greatest number of unclear games remaining, including his game against me. In our game I've managed to equalize material, but it could get messy now, and I have no idea what will happen next.
|
| « Last Edit: Jul 10th, 2006, 2:25pm by Fritzlein » |
IP Logged |
|
|
|
RonWeasley
Forum Guru
Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
Gender:
Posts: 882
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #83 on: Jul 21st, 2006, 7:30am » |
Quote Modify
|
At the time of this posting there are only five undefeated players remaining in the Postal (Owl) Tournement.
Fritzlein
99of9
Belbo
thorin
Adanac
I propose the rest of us refer to these undefeated players as "undies".
It's up to the newer players to change them and give arimaa a fresh set of undies or at least keep their streaks under control.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
seanick
Forum Guru
SeaNICK
Gender:
Posts: 97
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #84 on: Jul 21st, 2006, 11:28am » |
Quote Modify
|
Ron, you are a crude individual.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #85 on: Jul 26th, 2006, 8:08pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Blue22 and fritzlforpresident have finished all of their games, making three players total to have done so.
The standings are really shaking out now. 99of9 is far in front, poised to win 9 or 10. In a virtual tie for second are Fritzlein and Thorin, set to win 8 or 9 each. Adanac and Belbo are knotted up for fourth and fifth, but they won't be for long because their game against each other has broken open. I can't tell who is winning, but it surely isn't even. In a move or two it will be all over bar the shouting.
JDB is still hanging on to sixth, but might now lose two games he was previously winning, and end on only six wins. RonWeasley is guaranteed to end with six wins, and OLTI seems the only other player likely to make it that high. Thus my current leaderboard is:
99of9
Fritzlein/thorin
Belbo/Adanac
jdb
OLTI
RonWeasley
It's too bad frostlad is timing out in all of his games. He looked set to win six not so long ago, but now he may end with only two points.  Megamau is on the brink of winning the one game he didn't resign or lose on time.
Adanac still has the greatest number of unclear positions, and thus the greatest range of possible finishing rank.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
RonWeasley
Forum Guru
Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
Gender:
Posts: 882
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #86 on: Aug 3rd, 2006, 12:24pm » |
Quote Modify
|
I am now finished with the Owl Tournament. I believe I am the first to finish with a winning record. Given the strength of my opponents, I am very pleased with a 6-4 result.
Some of you may have noticed an error in my score which should be 573. I should get only 60 points for my 73 move loss to 99of9, not 73. I have a bug report in to Omar. Still, at the beginning I estimated a median score for a mid-ranked player would be 525, five wins and five 45 move losses. Beating that, again considering my opponents, is something I'm happy about. And I get more prize fund! At this point there are several players who may get a better win record but could finish behind me in points, even our five undies. So I'm rooting for quick goals from here on. Note that jdb needs to score 60s on his remaining games to tie me.
This has been a great tournament and Thanx to my opponents and special Thanx to Omar.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #87 on: Aug 12th, 2006, 11:58am » |
Quote Modify
|
We're down to 13 games between 11 opponents, which makes it easier to update the leaderboard. Adanac's quick win in his previously unclear game with Belbo brought some clarity to the standings:
thorin
99of9
Fritzlein
Adanac
Belbo
jdb
OLTI
RonWeasley
The three unclear games which will impact the standings the most the rest of the way are
Adanac vs. Fritzlein
99of9 vs. Adanac
jdb vs. Belbo
It's still possible that some game will reach the time cutoff this year, but it seems less likely to me than it did a few weeks ago.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
RonWeasley
Forum Guru
Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
Gender:
Posts: 882
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #88 on: Aug 13th, 2006, 8:08am » |
Quote Modify
|
Only four undies remaining. By the end of the tournament, at most, we will be left with only one pair of undies.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
99of9
Forum Guru
Gnobby's creator (player #314)
Gender:
Posts: 1413
|
|
Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #89 on: Aug 13th, 2006, 8:18am » |
Quote Modify
|
on Aug 12th, 2006, 11:58am, Fritzlein wrote:The three unclear games which will impact the standings the most the rest of the way are
Adanac vs. Fritzlein
99of9 vs. Adanac
jdb vs. Belbo |
|
I think Adanac vs thorin will be pretty important too!
Thorin - congratulations on almost completing a very impressive tourney.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
|
Home
Help
Search
Members
Login
Register
Reply
Notify of replies
Send Topic
Print