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Topic: 2010 World Championship (Read 16509 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #120 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 8:09am » |
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We have three games left, and thus only eight scenarios. That's a small enough number that I will try to parse it by hand, but large enough that I will probably get it wrong.
Winners . . . Qualifiers
---------------------- ----------
Nombril, Simon . . Nombril, Simon
Nombril, woh . . Nombril, woh
Hippo, Simon, chessandgo Simon, PMertens
Hippo, woh, chessandgo woh, Simon
Hippo, Simon, The_Jeh Simon, Nevermind
Hippo, woh, The_Jeh . woh, Simon
So Nombril, Simon, and woh all control their own fate. If Nombril wins, then Simon vs. woh is totally straightforward, with the winner in and the loser out. However, if Hippo beats Nombril, then Simon has clinched a spot whether or not he beats woh! It was a big help to Simon that 99of9 and Omar won this round. (But this analysis is not to be trusted; Simon had better try to win his final game regardless.)
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #121 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 8:23am » |
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One of the more interesting cases in which to compare WHR with the SoS is in determining the top 2-3 player in case there are only seven players with 3 or more wins.
Winners . . . Top 2-3 Fritz Top 2-3 WHR
---------------------- ------------- -----------
Hippo, Simon, chessandgo PMertens . woh
Hippo, woh, chessandgo Simon . Simon
Hippo, Simon, The_Jeh Nevermind . Nevermind
Hippo, woh, The_Jeh . Simon . Simon
Note that the only time they disagree is the first line, and that was the case when the Fritz SoS produced a four-way tie that PMertens won based on higher pre-tournament ranking. WHR breaks that tie differently, using only in-tournament information.
This is another confirmation of my growing impression that WHR isn't better than Fritz SoS except by virtue of tiebreaking. In the cases where there is a simple disagreement of ranking, it is arguable which ranking is better, and I might even have a slight preference for the Fritz SoS. But when there is a tie in the rankings according to Fritz SoS, I am not happy that it should be broken by pre-tournament ranking, so in those cases I prefer WHR.
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #122 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 9:39am » |
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These are not good chances for Paul as Simon with woh are playing the last match and could easily agree on advancing even if it would be the Paul's case.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #123 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 10:07am » |
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on Feb 7th, 2010, 9:39am, Hippo wrote:| These are not good chances for Paul as Simon with woh are playing the last match and could easily agree on advancing even if it would be the Paul's case. |
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If we had players who didn't care about playing their best, I can understand why woh would agree to get a free win, but why should Simon agree to let woh advance? It gets Simon a worse seed in the finals to qualify as the best 2-3 rather than the worst 3-2.
Anyway, Hippo, with your implied assumptions about what motivates players, Nombril will have a free win today because you can't advance anyway, so you and Nombril can easily agree to let him win. Why should you play to win when nothing is at stake?
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| « Last Edit: Feb 7th, 2010, 10:08am by Fritzlein » |
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PMertens
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #124 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 1:38pm » |
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ah yes ... thanks for winning for me, Hippo 
since I obviously could not do it myself 
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #125 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 1:55pm » |
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I have definitely not want to end with 1-4 record.
I hoped for LWWWL record or at least LWLWW.
If Simon has no chance to fight with woh early in the double elimination there is really nothing to motivate him to lose (suppose he expects Paul be tougher opponent).
But I really expect him to play his best.
P.S.: I really hope he have played his best ...
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| « Last Edit: Feb 7th, 2010, 5:03pm by Hippo » |
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omar
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #126 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 6:08pm » |
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Here are the final standings after round 5.
Adanac 8, 1.592, 2319, 14981327
Fritzlein 8, 1.442, 2568, 5740510
chessandgo 8, 1.442, 2561, 85081596
99of9 8, 0.787, 2227, 57429415
Tuks 6, 2.247, 2199, 34425107
The_Jeh 6, 2.034, 1987, 83071905
woh 6, 2.034, 1851, 25689908
Simon 4, 3.558, 1799, 36616487
PMertens 4, 3.155, 2004, 50101893
Nevermind 4, 3.155, 1756, 35632797
Hippo 4, 3.005, 1581, 49719646
Nombril 4, 2.903, 1753, 90361130
omar 4, 2.650, 2012, 50285839
naveed 4, 2.247, 1859, 69578537
ChrisB 2, 3.258, 2095, 52777368
fritzlforpresident 0, 4.489, 1658, 74558390
Wow, I must say that the competition has definitely gotten very strong this year. At one time Naveed and I were among the top players; now we seem to be falling farther and farther behind each year.
To the players who didn't make it into the finals, thanks for playing; I hope you enjoyed the tournament and will be back again even stronger next year. To the finalists, congratulations and best of luck in the finals.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #127 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 6:44pm » |
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Omar, how did I just get informed of my game time (which we have now clarified to be final barring mutual agreement with my opponent) when the first run of the scheduler isn't supposed to be until Monday night? I can play at my scheduled time, but since changes are not allowed, running the scheduler earlier than you say you will can cause people some nasty surprises.
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99of9
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #128 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 6:56pm » |
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Perhaps you should run the scheduler 3 times this round, with the second run being the official run - on time?
Note that I am not saying whether my time was good or bad, because Fritz thinks that would be giving out too much information that my opponent could exploit  . However if anyone reads the archives, they will find that I just got my preferences in early enough .
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #129 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:08pm » |
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From the chatroom archives we can see that 99of9 did get indeed get his changes in under the wire, but also we see that I wasn't the only one expecting to have more time:
07:11:57 99of9 I've just remembered to update my preferences
07:12:30 Tuks ill do it tomorrow...well today, but later
I interpret Tuks' comment to mean that he would sleep before updating his preferences, but then realized that since it was past midnight his local time, it was already tomorrow.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:10pm by Fritzlein » |
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Tuks
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #130 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:13pm » |
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yes, i wasn't expecting the finalization and would like a redo if possible... i have different time slots that i would prefer over the current one
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The_Jeh
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #131 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:16pm » |
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Just for fun, I thought I'd see how the Bradley-Terry Model (each player 1-2 against the anchor) ranks the players. Here are the results:
1. Adanac 2.27
2. Fritzlein 2.04
3. chessandgo 2.03
4. 99of9 1.60
5. Tuks 1.10
6. woh 0.96
7. The_Jeh 0.95
8. Simon 0.66
9. PMertens 0.56
10. Nevermind 0.54
11. Nombril 0.52
12. Hippo 0.51
13. omar 0.43
14. naveed 0.35
15. ChrisB 0.16
16. fritzlforpresident 0.08
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99of9
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #132 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:19pm » |
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Tuks, I acknowledge that I have seen your communication that you may change your preferences before the next scheduling is run (i.e. you have my permission - even though it's now against the rules ).
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #133 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:28pm » |
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on Feb 7th, 2010, 7:16pm, The_Jeh wrote:| Just for fun, I thought I'd see how the Bradley-Terry Model (each player 1-2 against the anchor) ranks the players. |
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So, the same rank-order except that woh edges out The_Jeh. I note that by the current tournament SoS the two are tied and The_Jeh only finishes ahead by virtue of pre-tournament ranking.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #134 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:33pm » |
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Let me second Omar's sentiment that we have had a great World Championship so far. We have never had so many games without a forfeit. Hippo's lost connection was unfortunate, as are all technical problems, but to have only one game damaged by technical issues is also better than usual.
In addition, there were some fantastic games and stunning upsets. I don't think the preliminaries have ever been this interesting before. Thanks to all for making it so!
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