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Topic: 2010 World Championship (Read 16503 times) |
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omar
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #105 on: Feb 4th, 2010, 5:14pm » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 3:29pm, 99of9 wrote:Nevermind, you're in luck. Rain is forecast for Sydney on Saturday morning, so furniture moving has been delayed.
Omar, could you please bring the game forward by 14 hours once Nevermind sees this? (To the timeslot determined by the second run of the scheduler.) |
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I've move the game back to 14 hours earlier. I hope Nevermind sees this in time. I've sent an email also.
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Eltripas
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #106 on: Feb 4th, 2010, 6:02pm » |
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I'm curious, under what scenario PM is able to qualify?
Thanks in advance if someone minds to answer
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Adanac
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #107 on: Feb 4th, 2010, 6:11pm » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 6:02pm, Eltripas wrote:I'm curious, under what scenario PM is able to qualify?
Thanks in advance if someone minds to answer |
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Here's an example. It's actually a 4-way tie for 8th but the final tie-breaker is higher WHR.
{| cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 border=1
! Rank !! Participant !! Name !! WHR [Seed] !! Rd. 1 !! Rd. 2 !! Rd. 3 !! Rd. 4 !! Rd. 5 !! Wins !! SoS
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| 1 || Adanac || Greg Magne || 2319 [3] || G 9 W || S 6 W || S 5 W || S 3 W || G 2 L || 4 || 1.5953
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| 2 || Fritzlein || Karl Juhnke || 2568 [1] || G 7 W || S 12 W || G 3 L || G 11 W || S 1 W || 4 || 1.4453
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| 3 || chessandgo || Jean Daligault || 2561 [2] || G 14 W || S 8 W || S 2 W || G 1 L || S 7 W || 4 || 1.4453
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| 4 || 99of9 || Toby Hudson || 2227 [4] || G 6 L || S 9 W || G 12 W || S 5 W || G 10 W || 4 || 0.7922
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| 5 || Tuks || Daniel Scott || 2199 [5] || S 10 W || S 11 W || G 1 L || G 4 L || S 8 W || 3 || 2.2484
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| 6 || Simon || Simon Lambert || 1799 [12] || S 4 W || G 1 L || S 11 L || S 12 W || G 9 W || 3 || 2.2484
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| 7 || The_Jeh || John Herr || 1987 [9] || S 2 L || G 16 W || S 13 W || G 10 W || G 3 L || 3 || 2.0348
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| 8 || PMertens || Paul Mertens || 2004 [8] || S 13 W || G 3 L || S 10 L || G 14 W || G 5 L || 2 || 3.1531
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| 9 || woh || Herve Dhondt || 1851 [11] || S 1 L || G 4 L || S 16 W || G 13 W || S 6 L || 2 || 3.1531
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| 10 || Nevermind || Antti Laine || 1756 [13] || G 5 L || S 15 W || G 8 W || S 7 L || S 4 L || 2 || 3.1531
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| 11 || Nombril || Eric Momsen || 1753 [14] || S 15 W || G 5 L || G 6 W || S 2 L || S 13 L || 2 || 3.1531
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| 12 || omar || Omar Syed || 2012 [7] || S 16 W || G 2 L || S 4 L || G 6 L || G 15 W || 2 || 2.9015
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| 13 || Hippo || Vladan Majerech || 1581 [16] || G 8 L || S 14 W || G 7 L || S 9 L || G 11 W || 2 || 2.7516
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| 14 || naveed || Naveed Siddiqui || 1859 [10] || S 3 L || G 13 L || G 15 W || S 8 L || S 16 W || 2 || 2.2484
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| 15 || ChrisB || Christopher Bovee || 2095 [6] || G 11 L || G 10 L || S 14 L || G 16 W || S 12 L || 1 || 3.2548
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| 16 || fritzlforpresident || John Hoody || 1658 [15] || G 12 L || S 7 L || G 9 L || S 15 L || G 14 L || 0 || 4.4213
|}
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #108 on: Feb 4th, 2010, 6:20pm » |
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Hmm... that makes it look like PMertens needs all seven remaining games to fall out just right. That suggests an expansion of the current scenario generator (in your copious free time between writing amazing game reports!):
Count the number of scenarios for each placement of each person. So there are 128 scenarios left, and PMertens' row might look like:
PMertens 2 8th, 15 9th, 87 10th, 24 11th
Does that make sense?
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PMertens
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #109 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 2:08am » |
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I certainly do not feel like I earned a place in the finals ....
especially since this kind of weird luck would not help me there 
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Adanac
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #110 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 5:15am » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 6:20pm, Fritzlein wrote:Count the number of scenarios for each placement of each person. So there are 128 scenarios left, and PMertens' row might look like:
PMertens 2 8th, 15 9th, 87 10th, 24 11th
Does that make sense? |
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I'll add that next year to my final-round analysis. I won't have time today because the next 10 hours will be very hectic...and then I'll use the next 2 hours to get ready for a big game
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chessandgo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #111 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 8:14am » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 2:39pm, Fritzlein wrote:| Indeed, if Adanac is really scared of me and chessandgo, he should at all costs avoid beating me tomorrow |
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I used the wording "psychological warfare" about what you wrote in the past Karl, but I'd never have thought I'd witness you talking your opponent into intentionally losing to you :p
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woh
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #112 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 8:40am » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 6:20pm, Fritzlein wrote:| Count the number of scenarios for each placement of each person. |
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 Fritzlein 40 16 36 32 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 chessandgo 0 40 28 24 28 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Adanac 88 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 99of9 0 14 18 32 2 8 28 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Tuks 0 0 0 32 72 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 ChrisB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 20 24 46 10
7 omar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 14 27 27 24 32 0
8 PMertens 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 31 61 18 1 0 0 0
9 The_Jeh 0 18 46 8 12 15 23 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 naveed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 44 20 28 32
11 woh 0 0 0 0 0 11 31 20 15 28 20 3 0 0 0 0
12 Simon 0 0 0 0 8 30 22 12 34 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Nevermind 0 0 0 0 2 33 15 31 27 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 Nombril 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 36 32 19 21 12 0 0 0 0
15 fritzlforpresident 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 22 86
16 Hippo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 36 36 40 0 0
The scenario posted by Adanac is the only one where PMertens qualifies.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 5th, 2010, 8:42am by woh » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #113 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 10:47am » |
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That's awesome, woh. Thank you for calculating this! So PMertens does indeed need all seven remaining games to go his way in order to qualify as the top 2-3 player.
Also we see by counting scenarios who is least in control of his own fate among the 2-2 players:
Nombril 44
woh 62
Simon 72
Nevermind 81
So both Nevermind and Simon have more chance of qualifying in spite of losing than they have of failing to qualify despite winning. For woh and Nombril it is the reverse. There is some justice there, given that Nevermind gets the "unlucky" pairing of having to play up while Nombril get the "lucky" pairing of playing down. There is some karmic compensation in strength of schedule.
Of course, counting up scenarios is flawed because not all are equally likely. I was rejoicing to see that I finish first in 40 out of 64 scenarios where I beat Adanac, until I remembered that 32 of those require The_Jeh to beat chessandgo, and only 8 are when chessandgo beats The_Jeh. 
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Nombril
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #114 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 11:36am » |
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I thought I'd offer a suggestion for next year...it seems there are a lot of references to luck as to who will qualify for the 8th spot. I find it a bit ironic in an abstract game tournament that luck is turning into such a factor.
It seems the open portion of the tournament is serving two purposes. 1. selecting the top 8 players, and 2. seeding the double elimination tournament.
Now, being just a bit biased from my viewpoint at the middle of the pack , I think selecting the top 8 is more important than seeding them. If all of the 2-2 players would have played each other, there would be no ambiguity for the top 8. Yes, that means that one of the 3+ win players either has a bye or a lopsided matchup. But we wouldn't have chance of the 8th place being chosen by the luck of strength of schedule (or WHR, as is being discussed for next year.)
I'm not sure how such a mechanism would be codified, or how often this situation shows up with different numbers of participants.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #115 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 12:28pm » |
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on Feb 5th, 2010, 11:36am, Nombril wrote:| Now, being just a bit biased from my viewpoint at the middle of the pack , I think selecting the top 8 is more important than seeding them. |
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That is a very reasonable thought, which has also occurred to Scrabble players. In the Scrabble World Championship there is quite a bit of luck in each game, so they need more rounds than we do to seed the finals, but whenever a player has clinched a spot in the finals, he is from then on paired against the highest players who have been eliminated from the finals, whereas the players who are on the bubble are paired against each other.
An important difference with Scrabble, however, is that they have a built-in tiebreaker after W-L record, namely cumulative score differential, so they don't have to resort to strength of schedule. We have no such tiebreaker, so we either have to use strength of schedule at some point or play extra games.
Quote:| If all of the 2-2 players would have played each other, there would be no ambiguity for the top 8. |
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As you mention, this will only be true when there are exactly sixteen entrants. In other years there may be an odd number of 2-2 players, or ten players that finish 3-2 or better, etc.
When we focus the energies of the pairings on determining which of players 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 are above the line and which are below the line, we also have to take into consideration the luck that went into putting those people on the bubble while making #5 safe and eliminating #12. I can imagine cases where we feel that player #12 should have still been in the running and given a chance to prove himself, and cases where we feel #5 lucked into a safe spot and probably would lose if forced to play another risky game. Conversely there will be times when we think that #6 has already proven himself and shouldn't be required to play again, or think that #11 hasn't done enough to prove that he belongs in the bubble group.
Our current format isn't perfect, but in only five rounds it allows everyone to have a fair shot of making it to the finals. It provides a decent sort-order of the players without relying much on pre-tournament ratings. The amount of luck involved in separating eighth place from ninth place is indeed a valid concern, but if that's the worst flaw of the World Championship procedure, we're doing pretty well.
The usual tradeoff in reducing luck is playing more games. If, however, someone can propose a pairing/scoring system that consistently reduces the luck element (not just in the present scenario), then I'm all for it.
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Eltripas
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #116 on: Feb 5th, 2010, 2:12pm » |
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In my opinion, while in fact there is some luck in the way the tournament is now and some strong players are left out while some not so strong players may go to the finals, the real contenders to the title of champion qualify anyways without problem (or maybe a little but qualify in the end), which in my view is the important most thing.
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fritzlforpresident
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #117 on: Feb 6th, 2010, 9:15am » |
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I am not sure if there was a server problem or not, but I won on time today after the first move in my game against Naveed.
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chessandgo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #118 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 5:49am » |
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on Feb 4th, 2010, 11:32am, omar wrote:
Thanks for sharing this article.
"Perhaps chess is the wrong game for the times." -GK
That's kind of what I felt also after the 1997 match. Actually it started out with me feeling sorry for GK that IBM wasn't going to give him a rematch, but then thinking that even if they did he might not be able to win. It seemed to me that the root problem was chess and GK needed a different game that would allow him to show the depth of his "real" intelligence over artificial intelligence. Tweeking the rules of chess to make such a game seemed like it would be simple (knowing what I knew about how computers play chess). Little did I know what I was getting myself into 
It would be interesting to know what GK thinks about Arimaa. In a way Arimaa was designed for him so that he could use it to stay ahead of the computers. It would be nice if he at least knew about it
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Thanks Karl for this link! I love your GK quote Omar I'm wondering whether I could put it in my book (I guess not). At least I can send an email the NY review of books to ask them, do you guys think there's any chance?
It'd be so awesome to have GK know about arimaa ...
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #119 on: Feb 7th, 2010, 7:32am » |
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on Feb 7th, 2010, 5:49am, chessandgo wrote:| I love your GK quote Omar I'm wondering whether I could put it in my book (I guess not). At least I can send an email the NY review of books to ask them, do you guys think there's any chance? |
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I think quoting GK definitely falls under "fair use", so that you have a right to do so with or without permission.
Quote:| It'd be so awesome to have GK know about arimaa ... |
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The problem with that quote is that GK is talking about poker, not Arimaa, as a substitute for chess. Still, you might be able to work it in to good effect.
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