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Topic: 2010 World Championship (Read 16513 times) |
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Adanac
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #75 on: Feb 1st, 2010, 7:25pm » |
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on Feb 1st, 2010, 5:58pm, Fritzlein wrote:| I would be much obliged, Adanac, if you would re-run the scenario generator again as the early games of the round finish. It makes for great drama! |
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I'll be visiting my wife's family this weekend so I won't be able to watch games or keep the Wiki standings and reports up-to-date. But I notice that 3 games are tentatively scheduled prior to my departure, so at least I can re-run with only 32 scenarios remaining (actually 4 games, down to 16 scenarios if Omar-ChrisB finishes in 1 hour or less).
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #76 on: Feb 1st, 2010, 7:31pm » |
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I did the post-round-4 WHR ratings in order to compare them with the actual tournament standings using W-L first and SoS second. Thank you, woh, for making this easy-to-use tool available.
The tournament standings have one tie left, namely between woh, Nombril, and Nevermind; WHR breaks this tie. The only changes in rank caused by WHR are putting 99of9 ahead of The_Jeh, and putting Omar ahead of Hippo. Both of these changes seem reasonable.
The eventuality that would be most controversial is putting a player with more wins behind a player with fewer wins. That hasn't happened yet this tournament, but Tuks at 2-2 is only 17 rating points behind The_Jeh at 3-1 according to WHR. It seems possible that by the end of round 5 there would be some inversion, most likely between the top 2-3 and the bottom 3-2. We'll see.
So far, however, I like WHR for breaking ties that the current format leaves intact, and the few small differences in ordering seem like they could be argued either way.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 1st, 2010, 7:32pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #77 on: Feb 1st, 2010, 8:28pm » |
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I did the experiment with WHR that I proposed in another thread, namely I increased the weight of the prior to see what effect it would have on the order of the players. My hypothesis was that as the strength of the prior approaches infinity, the ordering of the players approaches the ordering by wins first, sum of opponent wins second, i.e. the ordering we used in 2008 and 2009.
First, I tested my understanding of the tool by adding an anchor player with a fixed rating of 1500, giving that player one win and one loss against all other players, and calculating WHR-z. This came out the same as WHR before I had input the anchor, so I apparently understood the tool.
Next, I input ten wins and ten losses against the anchor for each player, and recalculated WHR-z. The order of the players didn't change! So my hypothesis is bust, right? Wrong! I quickly calculated (by hand, so I may have goofed) the sum-of-opponents-wins for each player, and it agreed with the WHR ordering of players. That is to say, for the current tournament results, WHR is equivalent to the old method of calculating SoS, except that ties are broken.
Thus my hypothesis still stands unfalsified, and a new question is raised: under what circumstances will WHR differ from the old SoS (sum of opponents wins) except insofar as it breaks ties? The plot thickens. I know that woh said there was a difference last year, but then there were also forfeits messing things up, so I'm looking for a case without forfeits where the ordering is different.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 1st, 2010, 8:44pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #78 on: Feb 1st, 2010, 8:34pm » |
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on Feb 1st, 2010, 7:25pm, Adanac wrote:| But I notice that 3 games are tentatively scheduled prior to my departure, so at least I can re-run with only 32 scenarios remaining (actually 4 games, down to 16 scenarios if Omar-ChrisB finishes in 1 hour or less). |
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That would be awesome. Once 99of9 vs Nevermind is over, lots of the possibilities will collapse, because either the nine-players-3-wins-or-better scenario or the seven-players-3-wins-or-better scenario will be out of the picture. By that time nobody will have those strange overlapping outcomes any more.
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #79 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 5:55am » |
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Report about my connection problems:
I have 3 methods of connection from my notebook. Mobile connection with integrated modem, wi-fi connection and of course classic cable one. With the last 2 I log to my local network connected by cable ... .
At the first round against Paul, I have used classic connection (with wi-fi pseudobackup), I had prepared backup computer for the case the notebook's accidental froze.
For the game with Naveed I was in mountains on mobile connection. I was scared of the connection here, but several test games didn't show a problem. WC game was OK. But after it I have tried instaling skype by this slow connection. The downloaded file was rather short, but after running it, it starts downloading a lot of data. The process was not successful, moreover, I have probably entered category of unfair users and the connection was slowed down for me.
After this skype installation attempt I had a lot of troubles in following games using the mobile connection (it worked fine before the mountain week).
I have played with The_Jeh in the same configuration as with Paul (even with mice backup).
As in the mountains my mobile phone start having big problems with making phone calls (with connection) I have bought a new one.
Yesterday, during students prepare time for examination I have played another training game with the mobile connection and I went to situation I didn’t received packets at all even after reboot and reconnection. I have tested playing and watching games on the new phone. It worked not the best, but worked.
For the game with Woh I have changed a configuration slightly as I didn’t have problems with wi-fi connection for a very long time, I have decided to play from the armchair not in the room with the backup computer. I expected no problems at all. But when on 21g Who’s traffic light got yellow, I start be scared. It was difficult situation, but not so much. When it got red, I wanted start another game window, but with no success. I have supposed it can be DNS problem reported earlier so I have written an e-mail to Omar. But there was problem with sending it. It may be the wi-fi one. I have run to the room with the backup computer (cable connected), and I was surprised even there was a problem with connection, but not only to Arimaa, but to entire net. At that time I have discovered this is my (local provider) fault. In 5 minutes the line modem again received connection, but the game was over. If I had watched my game on the cell phone, I would be able to go even through this obstacle. I will probably use this backup in the last game. But I have to limit playing on mobile connection or the mobile phone to avoid being on the black list. May be one can configure the game client not to download the stone pictures and animation all the time …
I had no problems with the local (cable) provider from the time I start playing Arimaa until yesterday.
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #80 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 6:16am » |
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I would fight with Nombril as if I had chance to advance ...
Just one question ... had the preturnament WHR affected the computed results or all were fully determined by turnament WHR?
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #81 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 6:29am » |
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on Feb 2nd, 2010, 6:16am, Hippo wrote:| Just one question ... had the preturnament WHR affected the computed results or all were fully determined by turnament WHR? |
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The in-tournament WHR has had no effect on anything. We are considering using it starting next year instead of strength of schedule, but for this year we are not using in-tournament WHR at all.
For this year pre-tournament WHR was used as the second tiebreaker in the standings, i.e. first order by win/loss, then break ties by strength of schedule, and finally break remaining ties by pre-tournament WHR. So this had some effect on assigning who would play against who. However, by the end of the tournament, the effect of the pre-tournament WHR has become negligible compared to what games have been won and lost inside the tournament. After round 4 the ratings only broke a tie between woh, Nevermind, and Nombril, and after round 5 there might not be any ties left to break.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 2nd, 2010, 6:30am by Fritzlein » |
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99of9
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #82 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 4:53pm » |
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My game time got changed from the preliminary time. I didn't make any changes to my schedule, and Nevermind didn't contact me, does that mean that the scheduling program changed??
I prefer the preliminary time.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #83 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 7:47pm » |
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on Feb 2nd, 2010, 4:53pm, 99of9 wrote:| My game time got changed from the preliminary time. I didn't make any changes to my schedule, and Nevermind didn't contact me, does that mean that the scheduling program changed?? |
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Omar said he wouldn't change the scheduling program until next round, so presumably Nevermind changed his preferences.
Before the tournament, I privately argued with Omar that he should not run the scheduler twice, because it would allow someone to game the system into giving the opponent a less favorable time after gaining some insight into their preferences. Presumably that is why Omar now includes a strongly worded message about not changing your preferences after the preliminary scheduling. But is it a rule or just a suggestion? If it is a rule that you may not change your preferences with out the opponent's consent, then what is the point of running the scheduler twice? Why not run it once and have the first one be final? But on the other hand, if it is just a suggestion not to change your preferences, what should you do if the first time you get scheduled for is terrible? "Suggestions" have the effect of not actually being rules, so that some people get the advantage of not following the suggestion, while the people who feel bound by them get a disadvantage. It's a way to hurt the conscientious people.
I didn't make a big fuss in public about what I considered a bad procedure, because I didn't want to increase the chances of it breaking by talking about it more. Now, however, that there has actually been a problem, let me argue openly for my suggestion: only run the scheduler once, and have the time it produces be final. That is the fairest thing to do, and it is difficult to game the system with dishonest preferences. If you run the pairings twice to accommodate legitimate desires to change the preferences, then how can you ever distinguish legitimate changes from illegitimate ones? What if Nevermind had contacted 99of9 about wanting a different time, and 99of9 hadn't wanted to change? Would Nevermind have been allowed to change then? What if Nevermind found out at the last minute that he would have to forfeit unless he changes his preferences? On the other hand, what if somebody unscrupulous claimed that this was the case when it wasn't?
Running the scheduler twice is asking for trouble. Just don't do it.
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99of9
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #84 on: Feb 2nd, 2010, 8:30pm » |
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I'm not sure whether I agree with you or not. In previous years when people set their preferences badly or their plans changed, they had to negotiate directly, which is a bit of a haphazard process. On the plus side it was clear who had the veto, as either player could insist on the original timeslot.
A two step process helps a little in that you can set your preferences a little roughly the first time around, and 90% of the time that gets a good result for everyone anyway. In the 10% of cases where someone is unhappy, I would suggest requiring communication, just a simple notification that preferences were being changed. If I received such a notification, I would then be very careful about exactly which order of preference I put in, because I would know that our schedules didn't match easily, and this was the last chance.
Interestingly, I've just checked my preferences, and the new time (8am Sat) is actually a higher preference on my list than the preliminary time (10pm Sat). Presumeably this means Nevermind has increased his flexibility, so I certainly have no reason to suspect he has done this cynically. It just happens that since finding out my preliminary time, I've been asked to be on standby to help someone move house on Saturday, so would prefer to be available in the morning in case it's hot.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 2nd, 2010, 8:32pm by 99of9 » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #85 on: Feb 3rd, 2010, 6:33am » |
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I also like the flexibility of changing my preferences if the tentatively scheduled time comes out bad for me. Unfortunately, it is open to abuse, and requiring communication wouldn't make it less open to abuse.
A stark example is when my schedule overlaps with my opponent only in two slots, one that is top for me and bottom for him, and one that is bottom for me and top for him. The scheduler considers both of these equal, and arbitrarily chooses between them on the basis of which is best for spectators. That's fair enough, and we are treated equally.
But what if, when I see that the selected slot was a bottom preference for me, make the required communication that I can't play at that time slot, and that I only had it in there for filler. I remove it from my schedule, and put in a different bottom preference. Yes, there is a small chance that my new slot will be selected, giving me an even worse time, but I have very little to lose, and fairly good probability of getting a slot that is better for myself and worse for my opponent. In this case my change of preferences would actually switch the scheduled slot to a time that is top preference for me and bottom preference for my opponent.
I'm glad that the change gave you a higher preference slot, so that you have no reason to complain about how the scheduler worked, just about the reality of your schedule. I am not suspecting Nevermind of abusing the system, just saying that there would be no way to tell.
But I guess our whole community is fueled by trust. We trust that people aren't getting help from computers in their tournament games, we trust that they don't listen in on commentary, and we trust that they don't manipulate the Challenge playoff with intentional losses or sockpuppet accounts. In that context, trusting that people won't abuse the scheduler is a small additional burden.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 3rd, 2010, 6:35am by Fritzlein » |
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Nevermind
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #86 on: Feb 3rd, 2010, 12:43pm » |
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99of9: I just realized that I had not changed my game times for this week yesterday, and did so. I have different times that I can play each week due to a busy schedule. Also, I am unable to access the e-mail to which all arimaa later messages are sent to, so I wasnt even aware of any preliminary time. I decreased my flexibility though, instead of increasing it; this week is very busy for me. I was happy to see that the selected time was what it was, for this is a good time for me to play. Hopefully I have not caused major inconvinience for you! ;(
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omar
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #87 on: Feb 3rd, 2010, 1:55pm » |
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Nevermind I'm sorry to hear about this. I wish you were able to access your emails. You might want to update your email address in your account (pick 'Settings' - 'Account' from the gameroom menu).
Shortly before you posted this I have (at 99of9's request) changed the game time back to what it was after running the scheduler the first time. I sent an email last night to you about 99of9 wanting to change the time and discussing it with him. I also sent an email after changing the time today. Since you are not able to access your emails you probably did not see it.
The email with the tentative time does state that:
"If this time will not work for you, please contact your opponent to discuss a new time before changing your preferred times. You should not change your preferred times without having agreed on a new mutual time with your opponent. If you do not contact your opponent then they should be able to assume that this tentative time is OK with you and will be the final time."
If you and 99of9 agree to a different time, let me know ASAP. I don't like to change the game times after they are finalized, but I had to make an exception since you changed your times after it was scheduled the first time without discussing it with your opponent.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 3rd, 2010, 2:05pm by omar » |
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omar
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #88 on: Feb 3rd, 2010, 2:13pm » |
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on Feb 2nd, 2010, 7:47pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Running the scheduler twice is asking for trouble. Just don't do it. |
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I might have to resort to that. So far I thought it was working out pretty good. It was nice getting to see what time the scheduler would pick for me and if it was bad having 24 hours to contact my opponent and try to work out a better time. If I didn't succeed then it would be the same as if the scheduler was run only once.
I am glad at least that in the one case so far where it did not work it was not due to dishonest behavior, but rather because Nevermind wasn't able to access his emails.
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Nevermind
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Re: 2010 World Championship
« Reply #89 on: Feb 3rd, 2010, 2:29pm » |
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Well, I am unable to play at the scheduled time.
If the system requires communication between the participants to affect the preliminary time, why is it that I can change my preferences afterwards and affect the final game time that way? If I was required to communicate then I would not be able to do this, correct?
99of9 I hope that you find one of these times suitable for you, and that you could pick one, and let me and Omar know. They are the only times during which I can play this week. All times are Greenwich central times:
Friday: 19:00-22:00
Saturday: 19:00-22:00
Sunday: 19:00-22:00
Monday: 14:00 - 22:00
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