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Topic: Move 4 (Read 6161 times) |
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NIC1138
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OK, I think chessandgo will play 4w Ed6e Ee6s me7s Db1n, What is our list of possible evading / counter-attack maneuvers?
(I don't really have a clue what Jean will play, I just wanted to start the thread before Fritz!  )
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| « Last Edit: May 7th, 2007, 11:47pm by NIC1138 » |
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #1 on: May 7th, 2007, 7:53pm » |
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A variation on that would be 4w Ed6n me7s Ed7e Db1n.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #2 on: May 7th, 2007, 8:48pm » |
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Thanks for starting the thread NIC. You just beat me to it.  I also have no clue what chessandgo will play, but let's remember what 99of9 said in the other thread before we picked his move:
on May 4th, 2007, 6:24am, 99of9 wrote:Here's one line that might follow if he decided to race without defending his camel:
3b hb7s ed4s ra7e rh7w
4w Ed6n me7s Ed7e Hb3n
4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5w me6s Ee7s Hb4e Md4e
5b ed3n ed4n me5e mf5n
That would leave us roughly even by my reckoning (since he has the next turn and can also retreat his forces if he wants). |
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At the end of that line I would look at
4w Ed6n me7s Ed7e Hb3n
4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5w me6s Ee7s Hb4e Md4e
5b ed3n Me4e ed4e me5w
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| « Last Edit: May 7th, 2007, 10:13pm by Fritzlein » |
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NIC1138
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #3 on: May 11th, 2007, 10:40pm » |
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What if we vote on what we think chessandgo should play??
Hey, here is a good taunt for us to enter! "There are 7 animals on your side of the board: The elephant, the camel, the horse, the dog, the cat, the rabbit and... the CHICKEN!"
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99of9
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #4 on: May 12th, 2007, 4:26am » |
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on May 11th, 2007, 10:40pm, NIC1138 wrote:| Hey, here is a good taunt for us to enter! "There are 7 animals on your side of the board: The elephant, the camel, the horse, the dog, the cat, the rabbit and... the CHICKEN!" |
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I think that's your best taunt yet NIC. But let's save it for when Jean declines a sharp line.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #5 on: May 14th, 2007, 11:24am » |
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If another day goes by without gold moving, I'm going to use NIC's taunt but change "chicken" to "snail". Or maybe escargot.
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The_Jeh
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #6 on: May 15th, 2007, 10:20pm » |
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Chessandgo has time to post in the forums, but not enough time to make a move. Either he is examining every possible line, or he is wallowing in a bog of vacillation.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #7 on: May 15th, 2007, 10:43pm » |
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Sometimes I am also guilty of posting in the forums without moving in my postal games. It can take less energy to spout off my opinion than to find a good move!
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NIC1138
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #8 on: May 16th, 2007, 8:13am » |
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on May 14th, 2007, 11:24am, RonWeasley wrote:| If another day goes by without gold moving, I'm going to use NIC's taunt but change "chicken" to "snail". Or maybe escargot. |
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Maybe slug, like those that came out of your mouth that time!
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The_Jeh
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #9 on: May 18th, 2007, 9:25pm » |
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Maybe he's testing the Mob's ability to stand fast as a team. He wants to see if the long period he is taking to make a move creates disinterest among Mob members and discontinuity of strategy. We mustn't give in! We must outlast this seige!
(Has anyone asked him what's up?)
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #10 on: May 19th, 2007, 9:56pm » |
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This game could easily take two years to complete, so the Mob's ability to stand fast and not lose interest will be amply tested before it is over. I imagine the number of active participants will wax and wane based on everyone's time commitments, but hopefully we'll be able to stay over ten voters on each move. If someone drifts away, someone else might take his place. For example, I noticed Adanac just today played a few live games after a long hiatus. He would be a powerful analyst for the Mob if we could convince him to join.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #11 on: May 21st, 2007, 12:07pm » |
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Maybe because I called him a snail, using NIC's taunt, he is baiting us. If we think he's baiting us, I should call him a WORM next.
But there's no reason to get overconfident. He hasn't moved against me in our owl game in over a week. This is a game he has clearly already won, so he's not delaying out of fear. He's probably busy playing chess or go, taking exams, or training a new owl.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #12 on: May 25th, 2007, 6:29am » |
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4w Db1n Hb3n Hb4n Db2n
I'd like to see discussion until Wednesday May 30 and voting completed on Thursday May 31.
We want to avoid gold securing the c6 trap. I think our elephant has to stay close enough to push the H off c5 if it goes there. I don't think we need to commit our camel to the c6 trap right away. Other than that, I hope to upset gold's position, but there's not much we can do now. Pull the M?
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #13 on: May 25th, 2007, 8:09am » |
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My very first proposal - flip the Gold camel by: 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w - it is leading in very interesting sharp lines (it seems to me that better for us) - or if it will be avoided by chessandgo - (with some sort of defensive move) then we are threatening the rabbit pull at least.
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| « Last Edit: May 25th, 2007, 8:10am by arimaa_master » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 4
« Reply #14 on: May 25th, 2007, 1:59pm » |
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Ah, chessandgo's move couldn't have made me happier! True, it would have been interesting and complicated for chessandgo to harass our camel, but if he had done that he would basically be conceding that he had wasted time in the opening, and that we are now equal. His horse advance is the consistent move; indeed his intention to advance a horse justifies his dive into the center on move 3w.
Instead of playing a messy but equal dual-lone-elephant line, chessandgo is playing for advantage with an elephant-horse attack. He probably believes he is ahead right now due to getting in the first shot. I believe, on the contrary, that we are ahead right now, due to the vulnerability of his horse. This game will give us a chance to get to the heart of today's central dispute in Arimaa opening theory, namely when and whether an elephant taking a horse hostage is a good thing.
But first we have to look at the camel flip, since that is clearly the critical line. By critical, I mean it leads to sharp and forcing variations (as arimaa_master points out), so it could give us a clear advantage. On the other hand, it is very committal, and could easily lead to a clear disadvantage. It's one of those lines you just have to study in tactical detail to know. Strategically the sequence
4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n
appears to be bad for us. Of course we can't expect to capture the gold camel while the gold elephant is between our traps, and the gold horse in the west will make it very difficult for us to even get a camel hostage in the west. If we are going to come out of this line with a permanent advantage, it would almost have to be a camel hostage in the east. But since Gold has immediate tactical threats in the west, I don't see how we have time to get the camel towards the east.
4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n
5b Md4e ed3n Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
seems to leave us with with no compensation for the gold horse anchored on c7. Perhaps more promising is preserving the tension with
4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n
5b hb6s hb5e rb7s xxxx
similar to what PMertens tried in game 50388 against chessandgo, but if we do that, chessandgo apparently wouldn't have to engage in a slugfest. He could extract his horse from the fray with 6w Hc7s rb6s Hc6w xxxx, not only renewing the threat to our horse, but also strategically threatening to safety his horse and camel next move, leaving us with no compensation for our exposed rabbit.
Of course, we have to look more carefully at the tactics than my superficial take, but my first impression is that the camel flip is a red herring that gets us in trouble after chessandgo puts his horse on c7. On the other hand, as a reminder how important the exact tactics are, I note that pulling the camel as Ron Weasley suggests (rather than flipping it) changes everything because chessandgo can't get his horse to c7 any more. After
4b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n
our elephant watches the c5 square. Yes, that move makes it easier for chessandgo to bring his camel to safety, but if he merely defends like that, we have gained valuable time.
For now, let me leave the analysis of the sharp lines to folks who like sharp lines. My inclination is to immediately take the exposed horse hostage with our elephant, before that horse can pull any rabbits. The choice is whether to put our elephant on c5 or b4. The problem with c5 is that the dog on b3 can immediately unfreeze the hostage horse, but there is a subtle tactical point in favor of c5. After
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
chessandgo can't flip our camel for fear of
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
5w Ed6e md7s md6s Ee6w
5b ec5s ec4e md5w ed4n
when our camel has excellent play against the advanced horse. So instead of flipping our camel, chessandgo would have to look at whether he can threaten a rabbit pull before our camel gets across. If
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5n Db4s
5b ec5w eb5w cc7n md7w
we will surely get a horse hostage with our camel, but chessandgo may get our cat in compensation, which could be to his favor or to ours, depending on how the timing and tactics work out. We would also have the less drastic option of
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5n Db4s
5b hb6s hb5w cc7n md7w
when I think our camel can get to his horse before his camel gets to our horse. We would have to check out the tactics to be sure, but I think that the exposed horse is more a liability than an asset. Furthemore, I don't think chessandgo can do better by using 4b to put the horse on a5 or a7 instead of on a6. Any way we come out ahead, for example
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
5w Db3n Hb5w Db4s Md2n
5b ec5w rb7w cc7w md7w
I think that putting our elephant on c5 stops chessandgo's attack cold. At the end of the day, the main reason I would rather put our elephant on b4 than on c5 is that if we go to c5, chessandgo has the option of running away to fight another day:
4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5s Db4s
and then we are just back to a lone-elephant race in which we are even. I don't want to just scare away chessandgo and let him get off even; I want to punish his audacious advance! Therefore my main focus of analysis is
4b ed3n ed4w ec4w xxxx
with the idea of shutting out his dog, forcing his elephant to come to c5, which in turn makes it easier for our camel to get across. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we can tactically afford to use our fourth step to bring our camel over right away.
4b ed3n ed4w ec4w me7w
5w Ed6s md7s Ed5w md6s
looks like a recipe for trouble for us. Therefore I'm inclined to instead make space for our camel in advance by moving our b7 rabbit out of the way. If chessandgo's elephant doesn't come to c5, we will cross with our camel for a clear advantage to us. Therefore he might try to pull our rabbit to a6, making it very awkward for our camel to grab his horse. Thus perhaps
4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w
5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ha5n
will look attractive to him, but then our trap springs closed! There is a race to see whether our camel gets to his horse first, or ours gets to his first, but I think we win
4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w
5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ha5n
5b hb6s hb5w eb4n eb5n
6w Md2n Md3n Md4w Mc4w
6b eb6s Ha6e ha5n cc7w
OK, for every variation I mentioned, I have neglected a hundred others, which could totally change my evaluation. Please forgive and correct the notational errors I have surely made. Right now my ballot is
1. 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w
2. 4b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n
3. 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w
4. 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w
5. 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w me7w
but I am certainly open to persuasion in this unclear and exciting position. Also I'm sure there are lots of reasonable moves I haven't thought of, which would potentially go straight to the head of my ballot.
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| « Last Edit: May 25th, 2007, 6:10pm by Fritzlein » |
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