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Topic: 2012 Arimaa Challenge (Read 8090 times) |
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Fritzlein
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2012 Arimaa Challenge
« on: May 26th, 2011, 1:02am » |
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For the record, I am renewing my $1,000 pledge to the Arimaa prize fund for the 2012 Challenge. Counting the original $10,000 prize announced by Omar, the total prize fund is $11,000 this year.
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omar
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #1 on: May 26th, 2011, 7:55pm » |
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on May 26th, 2011, 1:02am, Fritzlein wrote:| For the record, I am renewing my $1,000 pledge to the Arimaa prize fund for the 2012 Challenge. Counting the original $10,000 prize announced by Omar, the total prize fund is $11,000 this year. |
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Thanks for increasing the challenge prize, Karl.
If anyone else would like to help increase the challenge prize please post here.
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UruramTururam
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #2 on: Jun 8th, 2011, 2:40am » |
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I drop $150 into the Arimaa Challenge 2012 prize box.
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Caffa et bucella per attactionem corporum venit ad stomachum meum.
BGG Arimaa badges - get your own one!
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Belteshazzar
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #3 on: Jan 23rd, 2012, 6:26pm » |
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Question: Is the Challenge bot going to be selected in the same manner as last year? Recall that Sharp was by all indications the best even against humans, yet by a fluke Marwin won out.
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| « Last Edit: Jan 23rd, 2012, 6:27pm by Belteshazzar » |
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lightvector
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #4 on: Jan 23rd, 2012, 7:35pm » |
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I don't think Marwin won by a fluke. Marwin is an excellent bot.
I think both were very close in strength, so it seems not surprising to me that they each won over the other (by the barest of margins) last year in different situations. Especially since their playing styles were so different.
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Belteshazzar
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #5 on: Jan 23rd, 2012, 8:03pm » |
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I wasn't insulting Marwin, which could well three-peat this year. However, in 2011 Sharp did appear significantly stronger in the qualifying round against humans. See this discussion.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #6 on: Jan 23rd, 2012, 11:33pm » |
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on Jan 23rd, 2012, 8:03pm, Belteshazzar wrote:| I wasn't insulting Marwin, which could well three-peat this year. However, in 2011 Sharp did appear significantly stronger in the qualifying round against humans. See this discussion. |
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Due to the one statistics course I survived, I still break out in hives every time someone says "significant" in connection with numbers. Of course the best-of-five mini-match that sharp won 3-2 over marwin in the Computer Championship was not significant: between evenly matched opponents there is a 25% chance of a 3-0 result, so even a clean sweep can't be considered significant!
In the the longer round against humans, Sharp got off to a fast start, which had us all worried, but when all the votes were counted, it ended up in a dead heat. Marwin's victory by one in 40 comparisons was not significant, and wouldn't have been even if the comparisons had been direct rather than mediated by a human opponent. Indeed, winning by one in a match of any length is insignificant; the longer the match is, the less significant that extra victory is. In terms of my Elo calculation whereby sharp performed three Elo points higher than marwin, that difference in playing strength would not be significant unless it were calculated across more than 50,000 games!
We humans are conditioned to see patterns, and we manage to do so with or without justification. In college I was a volunteer subject in an experiment where I was supposed to guess the next symbol a computer would display on screen. After ten minutes I couldn't find a pattern, and my guesses had been no better than random, but in the exit interview I expressed confidence that I would be able to find the pattern if they would only give me more time. Afterwards I learned that the symbols had been completely random, and the only point of the experiment was to test people's confidence when they have been given no reason to be confident. 
Perhaps in subjective terms I and others felt that sharp was better than marwin, but in objective terms "all indications" in the form of game results were resoundingly insignificant.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #7 on: Jan 23rd, 2012, 11:35pm » |
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on Jun 8th, 2011, 2:40am, UruramTururam wrote:| I drop $150 into the Arimaa Challenge 2012 prize box. |
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Awesome, that brings us up to $11150!
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omar
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #8 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 12:16am » |
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The screening period for the challenge has started. Please try and play some games against the bots.
I guess Mark (mistre) might be busy and didn't get a chance yet to post who the challenge defenders are. I've sent a message to remind him.
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UruramTururam
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #9 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 2:44am » |
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Just because I'm silent and not playing It does not mean that I'm not here. I am here and I remember about my pledge. 
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Caffa et bucella per attactionem corporum venit ad stomachum meum.
BGG Arimaa badges - get your own one!
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rbarreira
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #10 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 4:14am » |
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It seems that bot_briareus has the wrong time control set up for the screening games. It is playing at 30s per move against Simnik right now.
I've notified Omar but I'm posting here about it so that people know they should not start screening yet.
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rbarreira
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #11 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 8:17am » |
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Omar replied saying he has fixed it, so I guess the screening can proceed.
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mistre
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #12 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 9:41am » |
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The 2012 challenge match defenders will be: - Jean Daligault (chessandgo)
- Eric Momson (Nombril)
- Tarou Auso (hanzack)
The backup will be:
Good Luck!
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rbarreira
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #13 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 11:23am » |
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As I said in the chatroom, that's an incredibly strong lineup of challenge defenders. The last time all defenders were in the top 10 was 2006.
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Eltripas
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Re: 2012 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #14 on: Mar 12th, 2012, 11:11pm » |
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on Mar 12th, 2012, 9:41am, mistre wrote:The 2012 challenge match defenders will be: - Jean Daligault (chessandgo)
- Eric Momson (Nombril)
- Tarou Auso (hanzack)
The backup will be:
Good Luck! |
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I think Nombril's name is Eric Momsen, not Momson.
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