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Topic: 2015 Arimaa Challenge (Read 11934 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #15 on: Mar 6th, 2015, 11:12am » |
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The Computer Championship is over and sharp has won undefeated. The last time a bot was this dominant over its rivals was Bomb in 2007. Sharp's 9-0 performance is even more impressive on the heels of winning the Computer Blitz Event with a 9-0 score as well. Last year in the CBE and CC combined, sharp was 6-6 collectively against its two main rivals, marwin and ziltoid. This year sharp was 13-0 against marwin and Z.
The end of the CC means the beginning of the Screening. Z took a clear second place ahead of marwin, and is thus the second challenger. Below is a table of past screening performances, expressed in terms of game room ratings of the humans who participated in the screening. I will update the table as the event progresses.
Year Pairs Decisive Winner / Score / Perf Loser / Score / Perf
---- ----- -------- --------------------- --------------------
2007 12 . 2 . bomb / 2 / 2087 . Zombie / 0 / 1876
2008 16 . 7 . bomb / 6 / 1918 . sharp / 1 / 1576
2009 23 . 7 clueless / 5 / 1910 . GnoBot / 2 / 1792
2010 25 . 11 marwin / 6 / 2065 clueless / 5 / 1960
2011 40 . 11 marwin / 6 / 2110 . sharp / 5 / 2109
2012 33 . 7 briareus / 5 / 2232 . marwin / 2 / 2128
2013 25 . 6 marwin / 4 / 2121 ziltoid / 2 / 2055
2014 33 . 11 ziltoid / 6 / 2259 . sharp / 5 / 2244
2015 27 . 8 sharp / 8 / 2557 . Z / 0 / 2123
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| « Last Edit: Apr 1st, 2015, 12:02am by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #16 on: Mar 6th, 2015, 11:16am » |
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Predicting that sharp will win the Screening is hardly worth the screen space. Is anyone betting on Z? I'll make a bolder prediction to go alongside my checkered past of bold predictions: we will have a shutout for the first time since 2007. That is not to say that Z will win no games; on the contrary, I expect it to have a strong performance. I merely mean that everyone beaten by Z will also be beaten by sharp, so that Z will win zero pairs of games.
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #17 on: Mar 6th, 2015, 11:59am » |
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I meant that browni's expectation in the WC is strictly less than 23994 Arimaa points.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #18 on: Mar 6th, 2015, 2:20pm » |
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on Mar 6th, 2015, 11:59am, chessandgo wrote:| I meant that browni's expectation in the WC is strictly less than 23994 Arimaa points. |
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Oh, yes I did take that into consideration. Describing my insurance as a 100:1 bet when I have staked 200 Arimaa points would imply that I think browni's expected payout is 20000 Arimaa points. That would be consistent with a 66.7% chance of him winning first place and a 33.3% chance of him winning second place, with a zero chance of finishing lower. That, in turn, would be consistent with neither you nor browni losing to anyone except each other, and you having a 51.34% chance of winning each individual game against him.
I actually think browni has slightly better than even odds in individual games with you, so I might be getting a bit more than 100:1 on my insurance, and I think he has non-negligible chance of losing to someone other than you, which might get me a bit less than 100:1, but what I have actually purchased should be in that ballpark.
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #19 on: Mar 7th, 2015, 1:15am » |
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on Mar 6th, 2015, 11:16am, Fritzlein wrote:| Predicting that sharp will win the Screening is hardly worth the screen space. Is anyone betting on Z? I'll make a bolder prediction to go alongside my checkered past of bold predictions: we will have a shutout for the first time since 2007. That is not to say that Z will win no games; on the contrary, I expect it to have a strong performance. I merely mean that everyone beaten by Z will also be beaten by sharp, so that Z will win zero pairs of games. |
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Just to clarify this, are you also predicting no one will even win with different colors against each bot for a 1-1 result?
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #20 on: Mar 7th, 2015, 1:32am » |
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on Mar 7th, 2015, 1:15am, aaaa wrote:
Just to clarify this, are you also predicting no one will even win with different colors against each bot for a 1-1 result? |
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Yep, that's how I have been counting pairs. I'm not offering to bet on it in that formulation, though. 
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #21 on: Mar 7th, 2015, 1:34am » |
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In the first evening, the bots won four and lost one for a combined performance rating of 2398. Pretty rough start for humanity. 
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Belteshazzar
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #22 on: Mar 7th, 2015, 3:17pm » |
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on Mar 6th, 2015, 11:16am, Fritzlein wrote:| Predicting that sharp will win the Screening is hardly worth the screen space. |
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Yes, if it doesn't, the screening process will have to be reconsidered. I suppose hanzack-like antics could cause Z to win.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #23 on: Mar 8th, 2015, 9:00pm » |
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In the second five games, humanity did a little better, winning two instead of one. Now that each bot has a loss, they can each get a finite performance rating: 2373 for sharp and 2127 for Z. Still no decisive pairs among three completed, but all four unfinished pairs favor sharp.
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Belteshazzar
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #24 on: Mar 8th, 2015, 10:13pm » |
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That you beat sharp on your first try makes me think that the Challenge is safe for this year.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #25 on: Mar 8th, 2015, 11:07pm » |
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on Mar 8th, 2015, 10:13pm, Belteshazzar wrote:| That you beat sharp on your first try makes me think that the Challenge is safe for this year. |
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Would you say more than 99% safe, or less than 99% safe? Just so I know whether my insurance purchase was at a fair level or not. 
But seriously, if deep_blue can win against both bots by stalling for eight hours, then I'm ready to say the Challenge is 100% safe.
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clyring
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #26 on: Mar 9th, 2015, 9:17am » |
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on Mar 8th, 2015, 11:07pm, Fritzlein wrote:| But seriously, if deep_blue can win against both bots by stalling for eight hours, then I'm ready to say the Challenge is 100% safe. |
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I would say then only that the challenge should be 100% safe, for there is no guarantee that the defenders will be willing to attempt such a strategy until it is too late.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #27 on: Mar 9th, 2015, 1:19pm » |
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on Mar 8th, 2015, 11:07pm, Fritzlein wrote:| But seriously, if deep_blue can win against both bots by stalling for eight hours, then I'm ready to say the Challenge is 100% safe. |
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Unless computer says no. (this is supposed to be a joke)
I really hope the game gets restarted tomorrow since although the score strategy didn't work I still didn't feel being worse when the connection crashed.
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| « Last Edit: Mar 9th, 2015, 1:20pm by deep_blue » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #28 on: Mar 13th, 2015, 10:27pm » |
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After a bit of drama, humans won two of the next six games (counting deep_blue's resumed game but not counting 722caasi's early resignation or either of DanielM's games). Congratulations to deep_blue for both of humanity's wins. The bots lose ground in performance rating, because the humans in this batch were lower-rated. Sharp is now at 2253 and Z at 2139.
Six pairs have been completed, and still none are decisive. My expectations for sharp cruising to victory have been thwarted yet again. Moreover, of the four current incomplete pairs, only three now favor sharp.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #29 on: Mar 14th, 2015, 10:18pm » |
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Humans win only one of the next five, which gives the bots a boost. Sharp's performance is now at 2321 and Z's is 2160. We have our first decisive pairs out of eight completed: sharp takes a 2-0 lead. However, of the five incomplete pairs, two now favor Z.
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