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Arimaa Forum Move 16


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   Move 16
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   Author  Topic: Move 16  (Read 6116 times)
Fritzlein
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Move 16
« on: Oct 19th, 2007, 6:00pm »
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Here is the branch of the tree we played:

15b ed4w ec4e Dc3n ha6s
.    16w Ee5w Hb3w rb4s Ra2e
.    .    16b ha5e Dc4w mc5s ed4s
.    .    .    17w rb3e Ha3e Ed5w md2s
.    .    .    .    17b Db4w mc4w Hb3w mcb4s
.    .    .    .    .    18w Ec5s Ec4w Md1n De2n
.    .    .    .    .    .    18b Ha3s mb3w Da4n ma3n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    19w Eb4s Eb3w Ea3e ma4s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    19b hb5n hb6w ha6e Da5n (=+)
.    .    .    17w Ed5n Ed6n cc7s cc6x Ed7w
.    .    .    .    17b ed3w ec3e Ccn2 Cc3x rb8s (=+)
.    .    16b Dc4w ed4w ha5s mc5w
.    .    .    17w Ed5n Ed6n cc7s cc6x Ed7w
.    .    .    .    17b ec4s ec3n Ccn2 Cc3x rb8s
.    .    .    .    .    18w rb3e Ha3e Rc1n Md2n (unclear)
.    .    16b Dc4w ed4w ha5s dd8s
.    .    .    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Ha3e (=)
.    .    16b ha5e Dc4w mc5s dd8s
.    .    .    17w rb3e Ha3e Ed5w (+=)
.    16w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Dc4s
.    .    16b rb4w mb5n dd8s ed4w
.    .    .    17w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w
.    .    .    .    17b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rh8s (=+)
.    .    16b ed4w hg6e hh6w Rh5n
.    .    .    17w Hb3w rb4s mb5s Ec5w (+=)
.    16w Ee5w mc5n Ed5w Dc4s  
.    .    16b hg6e hh6w Ra5n ed4s (=+)

I wonder what the chances are that chessandgo will play one of the three moves contemplated.  If we once again failed to consider his actual move, that is no reason to despair.  One of the beautiful things about Arimaa is that you don't necessarily have to anticipate your opponent's moves to win.
 
I notice that I had accidentally marked the main line as being advantageous to Gold (+=) instead of advantageous to Silver (=+).  It goes to show how uninfluential the tree is.  The majority voted for a move marked as being refuted!
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #1 on: Oct 19th, 2007, 8:11pm »
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Thanks mostly to the server outage, our reserve is halfway exhausted.  This is the situation where time management is most critical.
 
With a full reserve there is no reason to move quickly, whereas with an empty reserve there is no option to move slowly.  Being in the middle as we are, it will sometimes be wise to move quickly and sometimes wise to move slowly.
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Soter
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #2 on: Oct 31st, 2007, 4:05pm »
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C&G's move: Md2n Hb3s rb4s Ee5w
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #3 on: Oct 31st, 2007, 8:54pm »
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Thanks for noticing and posting the move, Soter.
 
Once again, chessandgo has totally taken me by surprise.  We can throw away the whole analysis tree and start over.  I didn't consider any moves containing Md2n.  That superficially looks strong, because our elephant now needs an extra step to get into its natural square on d3, and if we don't take d3, gold's camel will have access to b3, stopping any hopes we have of advancing our horse.
 
Without any analysis, just on a gut reaction, I think we have to push the gold camel back to d2 and take d3 with our elephant.  Let me suggest 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s.  This gets our elephant to its natural square and threatens the exposed dog with capture once again.  If chessandgo uses two steps to frame our rabbit with his horse, that only serves further to cut his dog off.
 
Although chessandgo has produced another move which appears quite strong, and which I totally overlooked, I am not yet despairing.  He is gaining traction against our rabbit, but it seems that we have adequate compensation in the form of his exposed dog and eventual action against his exposed h5-rabbit.
 
If folks would suggest a few moves, we can start debating the merits of our alternatives.
« Last Edit: Nov 1st, 2007, 5:26pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

camelback
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #4 on: Oct 31st, 2007, 11:41pm »
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I haven't analyzed much but how about this move?
 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s
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The_Jeh
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #5 on: Oct 31st, 2007, 11:47pm »
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I haven't examined much either, but what about 16 hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e?
« Last Edit: Oct 31st, 2007, 11:48pm by The_Jeh » IP Logged
Soter
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #6 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 7:12am »
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I think I like your move The Jeh - Gold is bound to lose more (materially) than Silver, at least at first glance.
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #7 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 8:40am »
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Chessandgo escaped from the tree... again!  
Well, at least things look interesting.
 
My idea: 16b: Dc3w ed4w ha5e hg6e
 
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #8 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 12:36pm »
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on Oct 31st, 2007, 11:47pm, The_Jeh wrote:
I haven't examined much either, but what about 16 hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e?

I think we need to look at the possibility of threatening Gold's exposed h5-rabbit on every move.  That needs to be in the back of our thoughts all the time.  However, it seemed premature for 15b, and on 16b similarly:
 
16b hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e
.    17w rb3e rc3x Hb2n Hb3n Dc4s
 
I think chessandgo would be relieved to trade rabbits and retreat his dog for an even game.  My hope is to capture his rabbit while still delaying the capture of ours, unless we can get sufficient play against his dog to justify letting go of our rabbit.
« Last Edit: Nov 1st, 2007, 12:45pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

mdk
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #9 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 2:53pm »
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on Nov 1st, 2007, 12:36pm, Fritzlein wrote:

I think we need to look at the possibility of threatening Gold's exposed h5-rabbit on every move.  That needs to be in the back of our thoughts all the time.  However, it seemed premature for 15b, and on 16b similarly:
 
16b hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e
.    17w rb3e rc3x Hb2n Hb3n Dc4s
 
I think chessandgo would be relieved to trade rabbits and retreat his dog for an even game.  My hope is to capture his rabbit while still delaying the capture of ours, unless we can get sufficient play against his dog to justify letting go of our rabbit.

 
I agree that this gives up any advantage we have. Also I haven't had a chance to look at lines carefully but i think  
 
16b hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
 
may actually leave us at a disadvantage
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #10 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 3:10pm »
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on Oct 31st, 2007, 11:41pm, camelback wrote:
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s

It makes sense strategically to get our horse in front of our camel, but even so I didn't like this move at first, because it leaves our camel frozen and thus doesn't threaten the c4-dog with immediate capture.  However, I can't immediately find a refutation.  Furthermore your suggestion seems to rule out the reply 17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s, which will be useful to chessandgo against some moves.  Possibly the camel flip refutes my suggested move of 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s.  But if chessandgo tries to flip our camel after 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s, we can simply take his dog.
« Last Edit: Nov 1st, 2007, 3:13pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

mdk
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #11 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 3:11pm »
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on Nov 1st, 2007, 8:40am, UruramTururam wrote:
Chessandgo escaped from the tree... again!  
Well, at least things look interesting.
 
My idea: 16b: Dc3w ed4w ha5e hg6e
 

 
16b: Dc3w ed4w ha5e hg6e
.    17w rb3e Hb2n Ed5n mc5e
 
and unless I am missing something (which is quite possible) we are clearly at a disadvantage. I see no choice but for us to give up our framed rabbit to protect our camel without capturing gold's advanced rabbit in return.
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mdk
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Re: Move 16mc5e
« Reply #12 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 3:22pm »
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on Nov 1st, 2007, 3:10pm, Fritzlein wrote:

It makes sense strategically to get our horse in front of our camel, but even so I didn't like this move at first, because it leaves our camel frozen and thus doesn't threaten the c4-dog with immediate capture.  However, I can't immediately find a refutation.  Furthermore your suggestion seems to rule out the reply 17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s, which will be useful to chessandgo against some moves.  Possibly the camel flip refutes my suggested move of 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s.  But if chessandgo tries to flip our camel after 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s, we can simply take his dog.

 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n
 
how do we continue?
 
sorry if it seems that im simply opposing moves without suggesting a move myself. My time is very limited... first college app due in less than 8 hours now so i'm just offering what i can in the time i have
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16mc5e
« Reply #13 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 3:55pm »
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on Nov 1st, 2007, 3:22pm, mdk wrote:

 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n
 
how do we continue?

How about this?
 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n
.    .    17b Dc4n hb4e Dc5n hb4n
 
I prefer calmer lines, but sometimes you have to be willing to play sharply.  As you pointed out before, we should be able to handle sharp lines at least as well as he can, since we have more eyeballs on it.  In the above line, can he endanger our camel without sacrificing his dog?
 
.    .    .    18w Dc6w Db6w md5e Ed6s
.    .    .    .    18b ce7s me5s me4w md4w
 
Still sharp but we may be ahead.  This is the type of position where refutations abound; I'm just trying to get a tree started, even if my lines are all mistaken.
 
Quote:
sorry if it seems that im simply opposing moves without suggesting a move myself. My time is very limited... first college app due in less than 8 hours now so i'm just offering what i can in the time i have

To understand the position well, it's also important to look for improvements for us, especially as the tree gets deeper.  On the other hand, it's good to get at least one reply to every move, so we can start a tree.  Furthermore, it's best to look at the sharpest replies first.  If all of our suggestions so far can be refuted outright, that's important to know!  (Which is to say, your contributions are very valuable...)
« Last Edit: Nov 1st, 2007, 4:56pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Soter
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #14 on: Nov 1st, 2007, 4:15pm »
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Is 16b ha5e hb5s rb3w dd8s worth anything?
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