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   Author  Topic: Move 16  (Read 5962 times)
arimaa_master
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #30 on: Nov 4th, 2007, 3:20am »
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on Nov 3rd, 2007, 6:34pm, mdk wrote:

 
your 19w is a move for silver (the move that Fritz suggests for 18b). so i thought you meant to suggest a 19w that chessandgo might play

 
You are right, of course - sorry for that (I simply ended with  
 
18w Dc6w Db6w md5e Ed6s  
 
but I thought that I ended with silver move - donīt know why Smiley
 
so I find  
 
18b ce7s me5s me4w md4w  and thought that is 19w  
 
of course this was 18b suggested by Fritzlein before (I donīt have an explanation how I could miss it even after you pointed out at that).
 
So I donīt have a better move for 19w than yours.
 
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mdk
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #31 on: Nov 4th, 2007, 2:31pm »
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on Nov 2nd, 2007, 12:34pm, arimaa_master wrote:

 
Since no one answered to my suggestion:  
 
"And here is my first-glance suggestion:
 
16b Dc4s ed4w mc5n dd8s (=+)?
"
...[edit]

 
16b Dc4s ed4w mc5n dd8s
.    17w Cc2e Cc3s rb3e Hb2n
 
and chessandgo's dog is safe and our rabbit is framed.  
 
however if gold's phant goes to the eastern side of the board our horse and camel can advance on the western side of the board. this takes time though and while these pieces were advancing chessandgo could threaten pieces on the eastern side of the board. so i'm really not sure if we are better or worse after this move.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #32 on: Nov 4th, 2007, 8:45pm »
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You guys are doing a great job without me.  I see we now have nine candidate moves, and each one has at least one suggested response for chessandgo.  Here are are the suggested lines so far in tree form, for what it is worth:
 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    .    17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s
.    .    .    18w me5e Ed5e mf5s Ee5e
.    .    .    .    18b ed3w ec3e Cc2n Cc3x ed3e
.    .    .    18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ede5s
.    .    .    .    18b De2s me3s ed3e dd6s  
.    .    17b ce7s me5e mf5n hb5s
.    .    .    18w rb3e Hb2n Ed5n Cc2w
.    .    .    18w Ed5e Ee5e Ef5e mf6s
.    .    .    .    18b ce6s mf5n Dc4n hb4e
.    .    .    18w Ed5e Ee5e Ef5w mf6s
.    .    .    .     18b hg6s mf5n Dc4n hb4e
.    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n
.    .    17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w
.    .    .    18w Ed6s Ed5n hc5e Db4w
16b ha5e hb5s rb3w dd8s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    .    17b Dc4n hb4e Dc5n Dc6x hc4n
.    .    .    18w hc5s Ed5w hc4s hc3x Ec5s
.    .    .    .    18b ed4e Md3n Md4n ee4w
.    .    .    .    .    19w Ec4n Md5n Md6w Mc6w
.    .    .    .    .    .    19b ed4w ec4w eb4n dd7s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    20w Ec5e me5e Ed5e Hg3n
.    .    .    .    .    .    19b ed4w ec4w eb4n me5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    20w Ec5n Ec6e cc7s cc6x Hb2n
.    .    .    18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ee5s
.    .    .    .    18b ed4w Md3n Md4n ec4e
.    17w Cc2e Md3w Mc3w Hb2e
.    .    17b Dc4s ed4w mc5n ha4w
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n
.    .    17b Dc4n hb4e Dc5n hc4n
.    .    .    18w Dc6w Db6w md5e Ed6s
.    .    .    .    18b ce7s me5s me4w md4w
.    .    .    .    .    19w Ed5n hc5e hd5e Ed6s
16b hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    17w rb3e rc3x Hb2n Hb3n Dc4s
16b Dc4w ed4w ha5e hg6e
.    17w rb3e Hb2n Ed5n mc5e
16b Dc4w ed4w mc5w dd8s
.    17w rb3e Hb2n Db4w Ed5w
.    .    17b hg6e hh6w Rh5n mb5n
.    .    .    18w Md3s rc3e rd3e Md2n
.    .    .    .    18b ec4e ed4e Md3n rg7e
.    .    .    .    .    19w Ec5e re3e rf3x De2n Md4s
.    .    .    .    .    .    19b ee4e De3n De4n ef4w
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    20w De5e Df5s Ed5e Ee5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    20b ha5n Da4n ha6n Da5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    21w Df4s Ef5w Ee5w Ed5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    21b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    19b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    19b ee4w De3n De4n ed4e
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    20w De5e Ed5e Df5s Ee5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    20b ha5n Da4n Da5e ha6s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    21w Hb3n Db5e Dc5s Df4s  
16b Dc4s ed4w mc5n dd8s
.    17w Cc2e Cc3s rb3e Hb2n
16b ha5e Dc4w mc5s hb5e
.    17w hc5n Ed5w mc4s Ec5s
.    .    17b Md3e ed4s Cc2e mc3s
.    .    .    18w rb3w Db4s Ec4s Me3e
16b ha5e Dc4w mc5s dd8s
.    17w Ed5w mc4s Ec5s De2n

 
I create this tree as the first step in ordering the moves for my own votes, and for adding analysis, but since I'm not sure how far I will get in analyzing and evaluating, I thought I would at least share the raw tree.
« Last Edit: Nov 5th, 2007, 1:49pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #33 on: Nov 5th, 2007, 9:06am »
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For my top move, if he flips our camel I was intending to respond very sharply by leaving our camel hanging and attacking the dog instead.
 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    .    17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s
 
The tactics are very hard to wade through, but from what I have looked at so far, we have the upper hand.  For example:
 
.    .    .    18w me5e Ed5e mf5s Ee5e
.    .    .    .    18b ed3w ec3e Cc2n Cc3x ed3e
 
or
 
.    .    .    18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ede5s
.    .    .    .    18b De2s me3s ed3e dd6s
 
Please double check, but superficially this makes me lean more toward my first hunch 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #34 on: Nov 5th, 2007, 10:23am »
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OK, I looked at other responses to the camel flip and the the dog attack appears to hold.  I was worried when arimaa_master warned us about the camel flip, but Fritzlein's reply seems adequate.  That exposed dog is valuable to us, so I also like Fritzlein's top move.
 
Anybody object if we start the vote today?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #35 on: Nov 5th, 2007, 1:42pm »
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Oh, since the voting has already started, please note that the tree I gave above is not ordered in terms of my evaluations or (presumably) in terms of anyone's evaluations.  It is just a collection of analysis.  If anyone who has looked at all the moves (mdk? arimaa_master?) would care to give a ranking, that could be very helpful.
« Last Edit: Nov 5th, 2007, 1:43pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

mdk
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #36 on: Nov 6th, 2007, 3:00pm »
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on Nov 5th, 2007, 9:06am, Fritzlein wrote:
For my top move, if he flips our camel I was intending to respond very sharply by leaving our camel hanging and attacking the dog instead.
 
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    .    17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s
 
The tactics are very hard to wade through, but from what I have looked at so far, we have the upper hand.  For example:
 
.    .    .    18w me5e Ed5e mf5s Ee5e
.    .    .    .    18b ed3w ec3e Cc2n Cc3x ed3e
 
or
 
.    .    .    18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ede5s
.    .    .    .    18b De2s me3s ed3e dd6s
 
Please double check, but superficially this makes me lean more toward my first hunch 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s.

 
Sorry I didn't respond sooner. school and college apps are really taking up all my time. In the line
16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s
.    17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s
.    .    17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s
.    .    .    18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ede5s
.    .    .    .    18b De2s me3s ed3e dd6s
.    .    .    .    .    19w rb3w Hb2n Ee4w Rc1e
how do we continue so that we don't end up losing material? I've tried but I haven't been able to find a line that works. I seriously hope that I am missing something because if i am not this is probably too late to affect the elections.
 
[edit]
i kept looking and i guess 19b Cf2n me2e mf2e ee3w might allow us to escape with giving up a camel hostage for a dog, although i'm not completely sure about what would follow.
 
however another possible move is 19w is rb3w Hb2n Ee4w Rg1e.   Again the postion seems to give up a camel hostage. This may be a perfectly sound 16b and I am simply having these concerns because I have no successful experience with playing such positions. I certainly hope it is if we play this
« Last Edit: Nov 6th, 2007, 3:26pm by mdk » IP Logged
RonWeasley
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #37 on: Nov 6th, 2007, 6:11pm »
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I think camel hostage for a dog favors silver.  I also think chessandgo believes that.  We would have to flood the hostage trap swiftly.
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mdk
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #38 on: Nov 6th, 2007, 11:27pm »
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I guess sometimes i overvalue camel hostages in my mind. but you are right, chessandgo won't want to give up the dog for a camel hostage and if we play it properly should be better off with such an exchange.
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #39 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 7:04am »
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With 10 votes reporting after extending the deadline to Wednesday morning, we have a tie!
 
Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s
 
and
 
ha5e hb5s rb3w dd8s
 
The preference matrix favors the first of these moves, but each was ranked first by 5 voters, so it's not obvious I want to use it as a tie breaker.  The voting site suggests breaking ties randomly.  I think I agree, but I'll wait a few hours to allow mobsters to make comments and give advice.  If I get no objections, I will flip a galleon at noon EST to make the choice.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #40 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 8:18am »
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Here's an alternative way to break the tie:
The first Mob member who didn't vote, who expresses a preference between the top two in a post in this thread, gets to decide.  I voted, so I'm excluded.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #41 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 9:06am »
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For the record
    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .  1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
1. Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s (push M, h->b5, d->d7)    .   -  5  7  6  8  8  8  9  9
2. ha5e hb5s rb3w dd8s (h->b4, r->a3, d->d7).    .   5  -  4  4  5  5  7  6  8
3. Md3s ed4s ha5e hb5s (push M, d->b4) .    .    .   3  4  -  5  6  7  6  8  7
4. Dc4w ed4w mc5w dd8s (push D->b4, m->d5, d->d7)    4  4  3  -  7  5  7  5  5
5. Dc4s ed4w mc5n dd8s (push D->c3, m->c6, d->d7)    2  3  1  1  -  4  5  5  5
6. ha5e Dc4w mc5s hb5e (h->b5, push D->d4, h->a5)    2  3  1  3  4  -  5  5  4
7. hg6e hh6w Rh5n ha5e (pull R, h->b5) .    .    .   2  1  2  1  3  3  -  4  4
8. ha5e Dc4w mc5s dd8s (h->b5, push D->d4, d->d7)    1  1  0  3  3  2  4  -  4
9. Dc4w ed4w ha5e hg6e (push D->b4, h->b5, h->h6)    1  0  1  3  3  3  3  3  -

 
I see what you mean about the tiebreak, Ron.  If you compare the top two rows, they tie 5-5 head-to-head, but the top row has a higher number than the second row for every column except head-to-head.  Still, I guess we can't break ties in a way we never officially specified.
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The_Jeh
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #42 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 9:31am »
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What would be wrong with just using the preference matrix? It seems like a valid way to break the tie to me.
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #43 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 9:58am »
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I'm actually very surprised the preference matrix isn't used to break a tie. I can't find on the sight where it suggests a random choice to break a tie, but does it give a reason not to use the preference matrix?
 
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 16
« Reply #44 on: Nov 7th, 2007, 11:19am »
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Yep; since #1 wins against every of #3-#9 more times than #2 does it can be clearly declared better by a tiebreaker.
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