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   Author  Topic: 2015 move 8  (Read 3635 times)
clyring
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2015 move 8
« on: Oct 17th, 2015, 2:37pm »
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7s rg7s ed4e Rg4n mf4e has been played.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #1 on: Oct 17th, 2015, 4:49pm »
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I think on this move we should start to try building an analysis tree. We must be careful to not lose to Sharp's strong tactics.
 
My first instincts:
8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5w hb6s (Ma5:h) to try a counter attack or
8g Rh2n Rg1n Cf2n Rf1n to try lock down the south east.
« Last Edit: Oct 17th, 2015, 4:49pm by deep_blue » IP Logged
half_integer
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #2 on: Oct 17th, 2015, 6:27pm »
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At first blush, g5e Ef5ew g6s looks like a possibility.  It keeps the camel from making an easy retreat.
 
If we do not move in the east, how do we respond to h6s g6e g5n mg4n?
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #3 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 2:50am »
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When silver advances the camel in the first place, we don't need to worry about it retreating. We can play Eg5, but more to threaten a capture temporarily while we attack on the b-file than anything else.
 
Sharp playing rg6 seems like a significant concession to me, I like our position with the advanced (non-endangered) Rabbit.
 
Modifying Hippo's line transposed from the 7g thread:
8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5s(w) hb6s
8s ee4e Hg3w mg4s hh4w
fails to
9g De2n Dd2e Mb4s hb5s
Also
8s ee4e Hg3e mg4s hh4w
9g Mb4s hb5s De2n Rg5e
Seems ok for us?
Also
8s mg4w Hg3n hh4s hh3w
9g Hg4e mf4e Ef5s De2n
looks good.
Finally:
8s ee4w ed4w ec4e Mb4e
9g Cc2n Rc1n Mc4w Ef5s/Rg5e  
looks good for us too?
So what about pulling that horse?
 
Just playing Rh5e or Rh5e Ef5e or Rh5e Ef5s could be fine too, but with only 2 or 3 steps in the west we'd be achieving a lot less.
« Last Edit: Oct 18th, 2015, 3:20am by chessandgo » IP Logged

deep_blue
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #4 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 4:48am »
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Jean's lines look fine though as I mentioned above I'd rather play Ma5. This prevents the camel from immediately getting threatened while I don't see disadvantages. The only thing I could imagine is that with camel pushing the horse it might be frozen on b5. It can be unfrozen with the Horse of course but that might still be a bit worrying.
 
Analysis tree (with what we think the minimax value might be; feel free to correct my evaluations):
A - 8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5s hb6s (Mb4:h) +=
A1 - - 8s ee4e Hg3w mg4s hh4w +/-
A11 - - - 9g De2n Dd2e Mb4s hb5s +/-
A2 - - 8s ee4e Hg3e mg4s hh4w +=
A21 - - - 9g Mb4s hb5s De2n Rg5e +=
A3 - - 8s mg4w Hg3n hh4s hh3w +/-
A31 - - - 9g Hg4e mf4e Ef5s De2n +/-
A4 - - 8s ee4w ed4w ec4e Mb4e +=
A41 - - - 9g Cc2n Rc1n Mc4w Ef5s/Rg5e +=
A5 - - 8s rh6s rg6e Rg5n mg4n +-
A51 - - - 9g Mb4s hb5s mg5s Ef5e +-
 
B - 8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5w hb6s
« Last Edit: Oct 18th, 2015, 4:51am by deep_blue » IP Logged
half_integer
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #5 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 1:13pm »
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For line B I am initially concerned by 8s ee4w ed4w ec4w hb5n.  We can pull-and-replace the silver camel to create a quicker threat, but is there a chance we lose on tactics to something like  
8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5w hb6s
8s ee4w ed4w ec4w hb5n
9g Ef5s Ef4n mg4w Hg3n
9s hh4s hh3w X X
 
The hanging cat at c2 is not initially of much concern as long as there are larger threats, but it is possible that it tips the balance in a tactical fight as the larger threats are covered.
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clyring
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #6 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 3:46pm »
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Some thoughts on the lines in deep's table:
8gMb3nMb4nMb5shb6s(Mb4:h)
8see4eHg3wmg4shh4w
9gDe2nDd2eMb4shb5s
We seem to get material or a good camel hostage tactically, but even if not, our piece alignment is great.
 
8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5s hb6s (Mb4:h)
8s ee4e Hg3e mg4s hh4w
9g Mb4s hb5s De2n Rg5e
I'm not sure about Rg5e, but it seems okay. Silver probably must offer a sacrifice if this line is correct.
9s mg3w Cf2e mf3s hg4s
10g Mb3e hb4s Mc3e hb3e hc3x
10s ef4w De3e Df3x ee4s de6s
11g Ef5s Ha6e Ra4n Ra5n
11s de5s re8s re7s re6s and it's raining silver pieces, but on the other hand the silver goal defense can become weak easily. I think I favor us here, but there will of course be a huge fight. We can also try to decline the sacrifice with 10g Ef5w Ee5s De3w Ee4s, but I can't assess the position after the simple 10s ef4w ee4w ed4w hb4n. If necessary we could also play something more defensive on 9g.
 
8s mg4w Hg3n hh4s hh3w
9g Hg4e mf4e Ef5s De2n
I don't strongly like this position. (But I also don't dislike it.)
 
8s ee4w ed4w ec4e Mb4e doesn't scare me because of the mentioned 9g Cc2n Rc1n Mc4w *.
8s rh6s rg6e Rg5n mg4n agreed refuted by 9g Mb4s hb5s mg5s Ef5e.
 
8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5w hb6s
The camel is less quickly threatened on a5, but is also less easily retreated and even without an immediate move such as half_integer's ee4www hb5n cannot as safely continue to drag out the horse as from b4.
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #7 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 3:59pm »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 3:46pm, clyring wrote:

8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5s hb6s (Mb4:h)
8s ee4e Hg3e mg4s hh4w
9g Mb4s hb5s De2n Rg5e
I'm not sure about Rg5e, but it seems okay. Silver probably must offer a sacrifice if this line is correct.
9s mg3w Cf2e mf3s hg4s
10g Mb3e hb4s Mc3e hb3e hc3x

 
Doesn't 10g Ef5e Eg5s hg3s Eg4s instead win material outright?
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #8 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 4:03pm »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 4:48am, deep_blue wrote:
Jean's lines look fine though as I mentioned above I'd rather play Ma5.

 
With b4 being unfrozen for us, I can't really see a downside to being on b4 versus a5.
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clyring
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #9 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 4:08pm »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 3:46pm, clyring wrote:

8g Mb3n Mb4n Mb5s hb6s (Mb4:h)
8s ee4e Hg3e mg4s hh4w
9g Mb4s hb5s De2n Rg5e
I'm not sure about Rg5e, but it seems okay. Silver probably must offer a sacrifice if this line is correct.
9s mg3w Cf2e mf3s hg4s
10g Mb3e hb4s Mc3e hb3e hc3x
10s ef4w De3e Df3x ee4s de6s
11g Ef5s Ha6e Ra4n Ra5n
11s de5s re8s re7s re6s and it's raining silver pieces, but on the other hand the silver goal defense can become weak easily. I think I favor us here, but there will of course be a huge fight. We can also try to decline the sacrifice with 10g Ef5w Ee5s De3w Ee4s, but I can't assess the position after the simple 10s ef4w ee4w ed4w hb4n. If necessary we could also play something more defensive on 9g.
on Oct 18th, 2015, 3:59pm, chessandgo wrote:

 
Doesn't 10g Ef5e Eg5s hg3s Eg4s instead win material outright?

Not a legal move. (But this is why I didn't give a line for Cf2w instead of Cf2e on 9s.)
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #10 on: Oct 18th, 2015, 8:48pm »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 4:08pm, clyring wrote:

 
Not a legal move. (But this is why I didn't give a line for Cf2w instead of Cf2e on 9s.)

 
And hg3w Eg4s leads to a home dog frame - not a very desirable situation.
 
9s mg3w Cf2e mf3s hg4s is a strong response, but I also looked at  
 
9s mg3w De3n mf3w me3w
10g Ef5w De4w Ee5s Ee4s
10s dd6w dc6s dc5s hg4s
or similar.  Is it clear who comes out ahead from a line like this?
 
I don't find any disagreement with clyring's set of lines.  It seems like we are settling initially on the horse pull being a good line.  It's always a little unsettling to feel that not all lines are being explored, but if we are confident we're not missing a damaging reply then I am happy with it.
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #11 on: Oct 19th, 2015, 1:43am »
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Let me just say for now that I'm really surprised at the g6 step from silver.
 
However, our g5 rabbit would be in the way if silver can get the h5 step in, as well, which could potentially make it a lot easier for the silver elephant to go west.
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #12 on: Oct 19th, 2015, 4:27am »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 4:08pm, clyring wrote:

 
Not a legal move. (But this is why I didn't give a line for Cf2w instead of Cf2e on 9s.)

 
Oh, sorry. In my defense, I have this condition. East-west dyslexia. I still like all proposed lines for Gold after this 8s, and I don't expect sharp to give up material for unclear strategic advantage.
« Last Edit: Oct 19th, 2015, 4:30am by chessandgo » IP Logged

chessandgo
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #13 on: Oct 19th, 2015, 4:36am »
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on Oct 18th, 2015, 8:48pm, half_integer wrote:

 I also looked at  
 
9s mg3w De3n mf3w me3w10g Ef5w Ee5w Ed5s Hh3w

 
10g Ef5w Ee5w Ed5s Hh3w ?
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 move 8
« Reply #14 on: Oct 19th, 2015, 12:20pm »
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Is there a good team analysis tool for Arimaa? Or perhaps a sufficiently flexible one for chess that could work? I'm thinking maybe something similar to harvey's pages for the Oracle puzzles.
 
I've looked through all the given lines now. The sort of response I want analyzed to the main 8g (Mb4:H) is 8s h5 Ec4 x.
 
The sort of 8g I'd like to consider is 8g gh5 h3 a5 Mb4.
« Last Edit: Oct 19th, 2015, 4:18pm by SilverMitt » IP Logged
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