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Topic: 2006 Postal Tournament (Read 6974 times) |
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
 
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #45 on: Apr 5th, 2006, 7:37pm » |
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Those figures are really interesting.
One conclusion I get from them is that we have become far less certain of what is best. The majority choice has substantially reduced in popularity in 3 out of 4 categories, and stayed roughly level in the other.
Elephant file: 98.1% (d) --> 79.5% (d)
Rabbits forward: 55.6% (ah) --> 56.3% (ah)
Balance: 56.9% (sym) --> 50.5% (sym)
2w: 68.8% (E4n) --> 41.1% (E3nX1n)
Or maybe we've all decided that the postals are a good time for experimentation.
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omar
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #46 on: Apr 6th, 2006, 12:24am » |
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on Apr 5th, 2006, 1:39pm, RonWeasley wrote:Some completed games in the postal summary page list one more move than was actually made. See blue22 vs. robinson, blue22 vs. OLTI, and RonWeasley vs. frostlad. The number is different from that reported in completed games too. This has the effect of giving the loser an extra point, but it's not fair because it doesn't happen everywhere.
This is probably something for Omar's list that will be important as more games are completed. I predict the point standings will be very close among many of us, so this one point error source matters. |
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Thanks for noticing that. I think it's fixed now.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #47 on: Apr 6th, 2006, 12:36am » |
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on Apr 5th, 2006, 7:37pm, 99of9 wrote:| Or maybe we've all decided that the postals are a good time for experimentation. |
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There was a lot of experimentation last year too. I think your first hypothesis was correct: it's not that we are experimenting more, it's that we are agreeing less.
I'm guessing that in these 95 games, no two had the same position after move 2b. That's astonishing if true. Can anyone think of an easy mechanical way to verfiy this? If not, I'll verify it by hand, because I can then compile a comparable statistic for chess, and use it to trumpet the relative virtue of Arimaa.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #48 on: Apr 6th, 2006, 12:39am » |
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on Apr 5th, 2006, 1:39pm, RonWeasley wrote:| I predict the point standings will be very close among many of us, so this one point error source matters. |
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Heheh. I think someone just realized he has a pretty good shot of winning the tournament. I looked at your other games, Ron, and I can't see that you are losing to anyone. (except me, of course  )
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RonWeasley
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Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #49 on: Apr 6th, 2006, 8:09am » |
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Quote:| I looked at your other games, Ron, and I can't see that you are losing to anyone. (except me, of course ) |
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Fritzlein, I see what you are trying to do and it won't work. You are such a Slytherin.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #50 on: Apr 13th, 2006, 5:25pm » |
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OK, I finally went through all 95 games by hand in an attempt to verify that they resulted in 95 unique positions after two moves on each side. Note my result is very much subject to error since it was tedious to compile, but I will report it as fact. It turns out my conjecture wasn't totally correct, as there were only 92 unique positions after 3 moves on each side. The repeats were
Belbo vs. OLTI
jdb vs. OLTI
OLTI vs. blue22
99of9 vs. blue22
Fritzlein vs. RonWeasley
thorin vs. frostlad
All three of these pairs diverged on the next move.
Compare this to the prestigious 2006 Corus chess tournament, a single round robin of 14 players. In those 91 games, there were only 20 unique positions after two moves on each side, with 71 repeats.
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| « Last Edit: Apr 13th, 2006, 5:47pm by Fritzlein » |
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IdahoEv
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Arimaa player #1753
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #51 on: Apr 13th, 2006, 8:39pm » |
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You don't have very much free time on your hands, do you?
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RonWeasley
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #52 on: Apr 18th, 2006, 12:42pm » |
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I noticed that the payoff for the Postal Tournament is stated as proportional to the points earned, but the proportion is not stated. If we knew the reward formula, we could speculate on how much an extra move is worth to the loser. (Sorry, Fritzlein, to waste your time on something that doesn't concern you!) We could even speculate on how much a winner, who lets his opponent slip in an extra move, takes away from the rest of the field.
If the average game length is about 45, a medium ranked player might expect a 5-5 record and a score of about 525. This is my estimate of the median score. The distribution is less predictable but we have enough players so that it might look like a normal, even with the maximum score of 600 so close. If, for example, the range is 150, a straight proportion giving $0 for a 450 and $40 for a 600 would make a move worth about $0.27. The rest of the field goes down by $0.02. This could have a big effect on how I root for other people's games!
Maybe Omar could give us for info?
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #53 on: Apr 18th, 2006, 1:43pm » |
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I'm assuming prize money will be in direct proportion to score just as it was last year, so people who score 450 and 600 respectively will earn prize money in the ratio 3 to 4.
To reduce this to an example of a single game, if we each put $2 in the kitty and I lose to you in 40 moves, then I would win back $1.60, while you would get $2.40, in the ratio 40 to 60.
I estimate that going undefeated this year will be worth a prize of about $24, down from $30 last year, and that extra moves in defeats will be worth about 3.8 cents each. Winning one move faster in a won game contributes to the pool, rather than directly to yourself, but even so it will earn you about 0.2 cents, i.e. about one-eighteenth of the contribution to the pool.
The prize structure this year is truly about committed participation rather than about winning, even more so than last year.
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #54 on: Apr 20th, 2006, 8:31am » |
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Ryan, just a reminder that you have less than 3 days on the clock for this move in our postal.
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Swynndla
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Arimaa player #1821
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #55 on: Apr 20th, 2006, 3:51pm » |
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I know that there are emails sent out when it's your turn, but is there a reminder email sent out when you have say 3 days to go to make your turn?
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RonWeasley
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Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #56 on: Apr 20th, 2006, 4:29pm » |
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I don't think there's any automatic reminder. Concerned players will sometimes e-mail those in danger of timing out, but that's all the help available. My mum said she'd send me a Howler if I let a game go 20 days. Same thing about changing my underwear.
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Swynndla
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Arimaa player #1821
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #57 on: Apr 20th, 2006, 5:34pm » |
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I think it's best if I change my name to Aragog before I ever play you Ron ... hopefully then you'll run away
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frostlad
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Arimaa player #1704
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #58 on: Apr 24th, 2006, 11:53pm » |
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I sort of wish that I had started arimaa at least a month or two earlier.
Well actually I wish I had started a lot earlier than that. But, at least wish I had an extra month before I started the postal tournament.
I've made a mistake in over half of my games that is rare for me to make now and was completely common for me a month or two ago.
Oh well there is always next year, and most likely lots of botbashing challenges between now and the next tournament.
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Swynndla
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Arimaa player #1821
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Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
« Reply #59 on: Apr 25th, 2006, 1:45am » |
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I bet that your postals were part of the reason you've improved so much! ... so in that sense it's a good thing you joined when you did, and not when I joined
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