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Topic: 2010 Postal Mixer (Read 12993 times) |
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #90 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 6:42am » |
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OK so finally clueless seems to not win the postal mixer  this year. I would be interested on the move where clueless started consider its position to be losing (in my game). I am almost sure the turning point was when it grabbed my rabbit instead of profitting from my "blunder" allowing MR/mc exchange with freeing both hostages meanwhile. But I suppose it was around 3 turns later for clueless.
http://arimaa.com/arimaa/gameroom/comments.cgi?gid=149848
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| « Last Edit: Jul 25th, 2010, 6:49am by Hippo » |
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jdb
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #91 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 8:46am » |
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It looks like Adanac will be done with clueless shortly. The two remaining games with woh could take a while.
If anyone wants clueless' log file from the tournament, I'll email it to you after Adanac's games are done.
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novacat
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #92 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 8:49am » |
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Thanks Hippo and Fritz. Congrats to knarl too for finishing undefeated as of yesterday!
Next year I will try playing more games.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #93 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 10:57am » |
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Well done, knarl!
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #94 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 11:05am » |
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on Jul 25th, 2010, 8:46am, jdb wrote:It looks like Adanac will be done with clueless shortly. The two remaining games with woh could take a while.
If anyone wants clueless' log file from the tournament, I'll email it to you after Adanac's games are done.
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As I have already written I would like to look at it , thanks.
And yes, kongrats kanrl to the perfect record.
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knarl
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #95 on: Jul 25th, 2010, 6:49pm » |
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Thanks guys, but I only played 3 games, and only scored one goal  . But it will encourage me to play more games next year.
Cheers,
knarl.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #96 on: Jul 26th, 2010, 12:34pm » |
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on Jul 25th, 2010, 8:46am, jdb wrote:It looks like Adanac will be done with clueless shortly. The two remaining games with woh could take a while.
If anyone wants clueless' log file from the tournament, I'll email it to you after Adanac's games are done. |
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Thanks for the offer, JDB. Adanac has just triumphed in both games. Sign me up (along with Hippo) for the log-file distribution list.
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Janzert
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #97 on: Jul 26th, 2010, 2:30pm » |
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on Jul 25th, 2010, 8:46am, jdb wrote:It looks like Adanac will be done with clueless shortly. The two remaining games with woh could take a while.
If anyone wants clueless' log file from the tournament, I'll email it to you after Adanac's games are done.
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I would be happy to put these up on my site for you if there is enough interest that you don't want to have to send them out individually.
I'm also willing to make the same offer to release OpFor's logs. But I think Opfor's will be much harder to look through since it is simply a file per move named by date and time.
Janzert
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Janzert
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #98 on: Jul 26th, 2010, 6:49pm » |
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Clueless' postal log can now be downloaded compressed as a zip or gz file.
Janzert
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #99 on: Aug 3rd, 2010, 10:35am » |
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Looks like Nombril is on a long trip. 3.5 days and he starts losing on time ... 
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #100 on: Aug 3rd, 2010, 12:52pm » |
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on Aug 3rd, 2010, 10:35am, Hippo wrote:| Looks like Nombril is on a long trip. 3.5 days and he starts losing on time ... |
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He was in the chat room yesterday.
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Nombril
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #101 on: Aug 3rd, 2010, 1:01pm » |
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Back from a long trip, plus we have moved, so I don't have many extra minutes right now. I am back, so will lose because I am behind, not because of time!
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Hippo
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #102 on: Aug 3rd, 2010, 1:50pm » |
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Yes, it seems to me, time is not the main problem. ... Making single move in blitzspeed against Fritz, Ron, The_Jeh ... in the postal games means losing ... .
I hoped for 60 or more turn loses, but it would be surely shorter .
Nombril, please don't lose on time ...
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| « Last Edit: Aug 6th, 2010, 4:20am by Hippo » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #103 on: Aug 19th, 2010, 12:03am » |
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Woh has just beaten Opfor to finish OpFor's 2010 Postal Mixer with a 7-8 record. For calculating performance rating, however, I will discard OpFor vs. Simon since it timed out on move two. I know it is a judgment call to exclude this game while including Bomb vs. MrBrain from 2005, which MrBrain abandoned mid-game, but the latter game was significantly progressed.
OpFor clocks in at a performance rating of 1848, which is exactly its pre-tournament gameroom rating! This is further evidence that OpFor's stunningly strong performance in 2008 was a statistical outlier. Thanks, Janzert, for entering Opfor in the tournament three years in a row for our enjoyment and education.
Clueless has two remaining games, both against woh, and both could still go either way, so we can't quite close the book on clueless' tournament yet, but the range is given below. Given the swing in performance rating caused by a single game, it is no wonder that performances have been all over the map in past events.
Bot . Year Record Postal Performance
--- ---- ------ ------------------
Bomb 2005 4-6 1716
Zombie 2007 1-14 1409
Sharp 2008 1-8 1568
OpFor 2008 8-9 2060
OpFor 2009 3-7 1798
OpFor 2010 6-8 1848
Clueless 2010 7,8,9 1945, 2008, 2072
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2010 Postal Mixer
« Reply #104 on: Aug 19th, 2010, 2:33am » |
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Jdb, thanks again for clueless' log file; I finally got around to analyzing it. For those of you who want to follow along with my commentary, here's a link to the game.
Between the start of the log on 4s and the point at which clueless saw a forced loss for itself on 31s, it correctly predicted my move only three times, namely 8g, 23g, and 31g. The first of these was me taking a hostage frame, and the second two were me making captures. A success rate of 3/28 = 11% at predicting my move would seem to argue against the chess strategy of pondering while the opponent thinks by assuming the predicted move will be made.
The first surprise in the logs is move 11s, when clueless didn't think I would take its camel hostage on 12g. It seemed to repent immediately, however, as its evaluation dropped by nearly a rabbit between 11s and 12s.
My second surprise was discovering that clueless didn't consider my move 15g to be a blunder, only my move 16g. My analysis was that 15g turned a fine position for me into a terrible one and that my 16g was my best desperation try to avoid losing two horses for a camel. Clueless, however, expected 16g E<HM<E>, and I confess that it appears to let me keep the camel hostage without losing material. Clueless can reverse the move, of course, but I win the undo war. So it seems that I bungled tactically in more ways than I knew.
I beleive that 19s was a critical error by clueless, allowing me to take its camel hostage because it was avoiding a dog frame in f6. This is a serious strategic misjudgment; the dog frame would have been worth far less to me than the camel hostage was. I expected that clueless considered itself to be winning comfortably as it played 19s, but the situation was more complex. Yes, clueless quite liked its move 19s when completing a 4-ply search, but at depth 17 steps it lost confidence in its move, thinking it was winning by less than a rabbit rather than by a whole dog. However, it didn't find any better move at depth 17 steps before running out of time. This may be a case where clueless' four hour thinking time was just a smidgin too short, luckily for me.
My position was at least equal after 19g, possibly even winning slightly, but clueless didn't think it was losing until playing 22s, by which time it in a very poor situation. Clueless' evaluation then rapidly deteriorated until 25s, when it offered to give me MH for M, and fully expected me to take the trade. By then, however, I liked my position too much to accept being up by only a horse.
On move 26s, 27s, and 28s, clueless deluded itself into thinking that its horse was somehow going to rescue its camel. I calculated once, before move 25, that the rescue wasn't going to happen, and after that it became part of my "quiescence search". This seems like a big advantage in understanding that I had relative to clueless. I knew all along I wasn't going to lose control of f3, and that I would eventually score at least a free camel there. Clueless, meanwhile, even when making 28s didn't expect me to immediately re-establish the hostage on move 29g, stronger than ever. Serious blind spot.
From there the game is completely over, and interesting only insofar as I might have forced goal a move or two sooner. Clueless, which had been feeling down by only a dog or so, suddenly had its eval crater on move 29s and moreso on 30s. I don't feel too bad if I failed to execute the last few moves perfectly, because I feel very good to have anticipated the eventual outcome at least five moves before clueless realized its overloaded elephant was never going to save the day.
This kind of analysis makes me more respectful of clueless in some ways, more afraid of its awesome powers, but in others ways smug about its remaining weaknesses. The man vs. machine drama continues...
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