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   Move 12
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   Author  Topic: Move 12  (Read 4800 times)
mdk
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #75 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 11:36pm »
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on Aug 30th, 2007, 7:51pm, 99of9 wrote:

When playing through the double-pull line you guys have done to great depth... this was my continuation.  To me it seems hard for silver to gain the advantage, and if we try, it looks like we might end up in an EMH attack.

 
I think that this 14w is actually far better for silver than at first glance because silver's elephant doesnt have the mobility it appears to have and ill try to add a bit more analysis but im pretty tired right now and may just go to sleep.
 
[edit]alright here is a bit
 12b hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull rabbit twice)
.    13w Eb5s rb6s Eb4e rb5s (pull rabbit twice, blocking off c4)
.    .    13b ha6s ha5s md6w ed4s
.    .    .    14w Db3s rb4s rb3w Hc3w
.    .    .    .    14b hh5n Rh4n hh6w Rh5n
.    .    .    .    .    15w Ec4e Ed4e Ee4n Ee5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    15b mc6w mb6s dd8s rg7e
 
and gold has a problem as if gold's phant moves west then silver captures the rabbit and if it doesnt then the camel can drag the gold horse leaving gold with other issues that if ignored will lead to problems greater than the loss of a rabbit. there are other lines involving gold attacking the silver camel earlier on that make this potential response for 13b look nonoptimal rather than lines such as these. there are other moves for gold for 14w that worry me far more than this one does, as i believe this line leads us to a clear positional advantage for gold, although others may disagree.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 11:59pm by mdk » IP Logged
RonWeasley
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #76 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 8:39pm »
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Some Death Eater put a jinx on the power to the Hogwarts server.  My e-mail containing the voting administrator's page has been made unavailable.  As soon as I learn that power has been restored, I will get the results of the vote and make the move.  Until then, don't panic and don't say his name aloud.
 
Hopefully tomorrow morning.  It takes about 30 minutes for me to apparate from The Burrow to Hogwarts.
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mdk
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #77 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 8:59pm »
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on Aug 31st, 2007, 8:39pm, RonWeasley wrote:
Some Death Eater put a jinx on the power to the Hogwarts server.  My e-mail containing the voting administrator's page has been made unavailable.  As soon as I learn that power has been restored, I will get the results of the vote and make the move.  Until then, don't panic and don't say his name aloud.
 
Hopefully tomorrow morning.  It takes about 30 minutes for me to apparate from The Burrow to Hogwarts.

 
Are you sure its not flying your broom that takes that long? It's rather difficult to apparate into Hogwarts Wink
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #78 on: Sep 1st, 2007, 12:13am »
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In addition to which apparition is instantaneous.  Are you sure that it's the real Ron Weasley moderating this forum, not someone transmogrified by Polyjuice Potion?
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #79 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 7:50am »
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The curse has been lifted.  Ministry people had to fix our power.  Then we needed house elves to boot the servers and we needed Filch to boot the house elves.  The hit on the time reserve is unfortunate, but that's one reason why the reserve is there.
 
TheMob chooses the double R pull.  We are idiot simple!  With all that time only 11 votes, so the other six mobsters must be playing with their flobberworms.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #80 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 8:25am »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:11pm, 99of9 wrote:
Yep, I think you're right Fritz, let's vote Wink.  Gee I love that you're bold enough to risk statements like that.

I told you so!  If we had just had a snap vote for the rabbit pull, we would have saved a week of reserve.  Wink
« Last Edit: Sep 4th, 2007, 8:25am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #81 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 8:32am »
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    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.
1. hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull R twice)  .    .    .     -   6   7   8   8  10  11  11
2. hh3n Rh2n ed4w dd8s (pull R, e to c4, d to d7).     5   -   5   7   8   9  10   9
3. hh3n Rh2n ed4w ha6s (pull R, e to c4, h to a5).     4   6   -   4   5   6   8   7
4. ed4w ec4n Hc3n md6e (block E from center, m to e6)  3   4   6   -   4   7   8   7
5. ed4w ec4n Hc3n dd8s (block E from center, d to d7)  3   3   5   3   -   6   7   6
6. hh3n Rh2n ed4w rb6e (pull R, e to c4, r to c6).     1   1   5   4   4   -  10   9
7. hh3n Rh2n ed4w ha6n (pull R, e to c4, h to a7).     0   1   3   3   4   1   -   8
8. ed4n ed5w rb6e ha6e (e to c5, r to c6, h to b6)     0   2   3   2   2   2   3   -

 
This is our closest vote yet, not only with a one-vote margin at the top, but with a three-way circular preference for second through fourth.  Hopefully that is because all of the top four moves would have given us a slight advantage.
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #82 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 8:42am »
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When looking at the matrix above I have an impression that most of the voters thought like this:
"I prefer moves X,Y... I don't like many others. So I place the silly 'Pull-The-Wabbit' move just between the ones I like and the ones I don't.".
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #83 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 3:53pm »
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On the contrary, UT, if you were looking at my ballot (or at my ordering of the analysis tree), you would have seen that I put the "block the E from the center" moves in between the moves that I liked and the moves that I didn't like.
 
More generally, I expect everyone put the moves that they felt neutral about in between the moves they favored and the moves they disfavored.
 
More generally still, I expect everyone ranked the moves from best to worst.  That's a good thing, isn't it?
 
Even if pulling the rabbit was the #1 choice of nobody (which you seem to imply, and which I expect is not true), even then we know one thing for sure: if pulling the rabbit had been in a two-way vote with any other move the majority would have wanted to pull the rabbit.  That's the beauty of Condorcet voting.
« Last Edit: Sep 4th, 2007, 3:58pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

UruramTururam
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #84 on: Sep 4th, 2007, 4:50pm »
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I don't think that absolutely no-one put the double pull first. But it is possible. Yet surely no-one put it near the bottom.
 
The two general thoughts you present are of course true, but this case where there is no "absolute" winner the preferences on the lower locations became more and more important. By the way I think that sometimes analyzing specific cases could probably be better than generalizing up to obviousness... Of course I am not a mathematician!  
 
And - yes - the Condorcet method is something like selecting "the smallest evil", looking for the compromise. What is really counterintuitive here, and worth our investigation  - the safe solutions not always win! This is the case of safe solution winning, but for the previous move or move 9 aggressive moves won. However we should take into account that gamers usually like taking risks.
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