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   Author  Topic: Move 15  (Read 2832 times)
Fritzlein
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Move 15
« on: Oct 5th, 2007, 8:27pm »
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14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5w
.    .    15b ed4w mc5w ec4n Dc3n
.    .    .    16w Ed5s Dc4s Ed4w Hb3w
.    .    .    .    16b hg6e hh6w Ra5n Ha6s
.    .    .    .    .    17w Ha3e ra4s Cc2w Dc3s
.    .    .    .    .    .    17b ec5e ed5s ed4s mb5n (=+)
.    15w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Hc4s
.    .    15b ha6s mb5n ed4w hg6e (=+)

Here's what's left of my tree.  The main line is awfully long, and chessandgo can probably profitably deviate somewhere, not to mention choosing a 15w I didn't list.
« Last Edit: Oct 5th, 2007, 8:27pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

arimaa_master
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #1 on: Oct 6th, 2007, 2:18pm »
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Chessandgo already made a move: no one predicted this one I guess Smiley
« Last Edit: Oct 6th, 2007, 2:18pm by arimaa_master » IP Logged
arimaa_master
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #2 on: Oct 6th, 2007, 2:23pm »
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I propose 15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4w - main purpose of this move is to pull another rabbit.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #3 on: Oct 6th, 2007, 3:33pm »
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I sure didn't predict 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s ra4e.  It has the threat to capture our rabbit next move, but leaves our camel mobile and chessandgo's elephant closer to the east.  The threat to our rabbit isn't all that strong, so I wonder if chessandgo's move is actually stronger than 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5w.
 
My first thought for a response was 15b ed4w rb4w ec4w Dc3n, but if chessandgo decides to play merry-go-round with his horse and dog, he will eventually force us to deviate to avoid repetition.
 
My second thought was 15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4n.  I'm not very scared of our camel getting pushed to c4 with our elephant, horse and rabbit out in front.  However, it depends on specific tactics as to whether ed4n is better or worse than arimaa_master's idea of ed4w.
 
A very aggressive try is 15b mc5s rb4w mc4w Dc3n, but this may expose our camel too much.
 
We can take advantage of the fact that chessandgo didn't threaten our camel with 15b ed4w hg6e hh6w Rh5n.  Can his elephant then really afford to go east?
 
15b mc5s mc4n Dc3n ha6s is also intriguiging.  It seems to force chessandgo's elephant to come back west to avoid a very awkward dog hostage, and we haven't succumbed to repetition by moving our rabbit back to a4.
 
Are there any other suggestions before I start posting a tree?
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #4 on: Oct 6th, 2007, 5:55pm »
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on Oct 6th, 2007, 2:18pm, arimaa_master wrote:
Chessandgo already made a move: no one predicted this one I guess Smiley

But taking into account the time C&G used to make it we can assume he predicted our move...
 
I opt for sacrificing tactics for strategy this turn making no immediate threats but just positioning the pieces in order.  
 
Thus my proposal: 15b ed4w rb4w ha6e dd8s .
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #5 on: Oct 6th, 2007, 11:11pm »
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on Oct 6th, 2007, 5:55pm, UruramTururam wrote:

But taking into account the time C&G used to make it we can assume he predicted our move...

 
I wouldn't be certain that he predicted our move. Up until this past the turn before this one chessandgo wasn't using much time at all to make his moves.
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #6 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 12:11am »
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on Oct 6th, 2007, 2:23pm, arimaa_master wrote:
I propose 15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4w - main purpose of this move is to pull another rabbit.

 
on Oct 6th, 2007, 3:33pm, Fritzlein wrote:

 
My second thought was 15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4n.  I'm not very scared of our camel getting pushed to c4 with our elephant, horse and rabbit out in front.  However, it depends on specific tactics as to whether ed4n is better or worse than arimaa_master's idea of ed4w.

 
I know Fritz says hes not scared of it but how do we respond to  In all the lines I have been playing out I always end up with gold having an advantage. What am I missing?
 
15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4n allows for the immediate capture of our rabbit. Did you mean ed4s? If so then I am somewhat worried about our camel being pushed to c4. Not so much because I think chessandgo will capture our camel but because I worried we lose tempo and maybe even our rabbit in order to prevent our camel from being taken hostage. So how would you actually respond to having our camel pushed to c4?
« Last Edit: Oct 7th, 2007, 12:37am by mdk » IP Logged
UruramTururam
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #7 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 2:33am »
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on Oct 6th, 2007, 11:11pm, mdk wrote:

 
I wouldn't be certain that he predicted our move. Up until this past the turn before this one chessandgo wasn't using much time at all to make his moves.

 
Sure, we can't be certain. But in any game it's wise to assume that the opponent is smarter than us.  Wink In fact Arimaa is a game designed to have enormous number of possible answers in any given situation. Chessandgo escaped from our position trees very quickly so far... By the way - what I've just realized - one of the outcomes of this very game could be: are the move trees really useful in Arimaa? Or perhaps some other methods of planning are better? We don't exactly know the method C&G uses to analyze the positions.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #8 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 9:37am »
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on Oct 7th, 2007, 12:11am, mdk wrote:
I know Fritz says hes not scared of it but how do we respond to  In all the lines I have been playing out I always end up with gold having an advantage. What am I missing?
 
15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4n

You aren't missing anything. I meant ed4s not ed4n.  
 Tongue
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #9 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 2:36pm »
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on Oct 7th, 2007, 2:33am, UruramTururam wrote:
are the move trees really useful in Arimaa?

Move trees are certainly useful in Arimaa.  Just on the last Mob move my gut instincts were in favor of the move we almost made.  I even justified the move strategically, in what I thought were reasonably persuasive terms.  But when I tried to play out some lines, it didn't work out the way I expected.  My instincts and explanations were wrong.
 
Where do instincts and explanations come from in the first place?  From playing, of course!  We wouldn't even know how to start thinking about a position without some experience from previous games.  Playing games is how we develop our understanding.  But then, how do we get experience about a specific position that isn't quite like any other position we have encountered before?  By building an analysis tree!
 
I admit that playing against myself, I can only come up with mediocre analysis.  My trees often look like this:
 
move
.    mistake
.    .    mistake
.    .    .    accidental brilliancy
.    .    .    .    whoa dude
 
and of course the moves in that tree never get played.  But in part that is because I get stuck in a single way of thinking about a position, and therefore I don't learn very much from the analysis.  One can often learn more from five minutes of a different perspective than an hour of contemplation.  So sharing the analysis tree and having it critiqued is an essential motivation for doing the analysis at all.
 
As for chessandgo not making the moves we expect, that doesn't mean it wasn't useful for us to analyze and understand the position.  We don't have to get perfect to get better.  Furthermore, I think both 13w and 15w by chessandgo were mistakes, or at least inaccuracies, so I don't feel bad if we missed them both.
 
Finally, I think we are winning so far, so however we are collectively "thinking", it seems to be working.  Not to underestimate the World Champion, but I feel we as a team are doing better so far.  Yay for us!
 
« Last Edit: Oct 7th, 2007, 2:38pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #10 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 5:59pm »
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After playing out some lines, I have a vague impression that we are winning, and a distinct impression that I have a lot to learn about Arimaa strategy.  In many positions I couldn't decide what the relative objectives of each side are.  Sometimes it seems that an EMHR attack on c3 is our best strategy, but when chessandgo's elephant returns to defend, I feel unable to evaluate the resulting position.  I will be very curious to hear other opinions about my move selection and evaluation of the nodes.
 

15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4w
.    16w Ee5w Ed5s mc5e Dc3e
.    .    16b dd8s dd7s md5w dd6w
.    .    .    17w Hb3s rb4s rb3e Hb2n
.    .    .    .    17b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rg7e (=+)
.    16w Cc2w Dc3s Ee5e Ef5e
.    .    16b rb4w ec4w eb4e Hb3n
.    .    .    17w Md2n Md3w Mc3w De2n
.    .    .    .    17b mc5w mb5n Hb4n ce7s
.    .    .    .    .    18w Eg5w hg6s hg5s Ef5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    18b mb6n Hb5n Hb6e Hc6x mb7s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    19w hg4w Eg5s hf4s hf3x Eg4w
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    19b ec4w eb4e Mb3n ha3e (=+)
.    16w Ee5e Ef5e Eg5w hg6s
.    .    16b ec4e Dc3n mc5w Dc4n
.    .    .    17w Ef5s hg5w Ef4w hf5s
.    .    .    .    17b Dc5n Dc6x mb5e ed4s ed3e (-+)
15b ed4w ec4e Dc3n ha6s
.    16w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Dc4s
.    .    16b rb4w mb5n dd8s ed4w
.    .    .    17w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w
.    .    .    .    17b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rh8s (=+)
.    .    16b ed4w hg6e hh6w Rh5n
.    .    .    17w Hb3w rb4s mb5s Ec5w (+=)
15b ha6s ha5s ha4s ed4s
.    16w Cc2w Dc3s Md2s Ee5w
.    .    16b ed3n ed4w mc5w dd8s
.    .    .    17w Md1n Ed5n Ed6s dd7s (?)
.    .    .    17w Ed5w mb5w Ec5w Md1n
.    .    .    .    17b ha3n Ra2n ma5n ma6e (=+)
.    .    16b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd8s
.    .    .    17w mc5s Ed5w mc4s Ec5s (?)
.    16w Ee5w mc5s Ed5w Md2s
.    .    16b ed3n rb4w mc4w ed4w
.    .    .    17w Ec5w Hb3s mb4s Eb5s
.    .    .    .    17b Dc3e mb3e ha3e dd8s (=+)
.    16w Ee5w mc5s Ed5w Ra2e
.    .    16b ha3s ha2n Ra1n dd8s (=+)
.    16w Ee5e Ef5e Eg5w hg6s
.    .    16b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w (-+)
15b ed4w rb4w ha6e dd8s
.    16w Ee5w Ed5n mc5e Dc3e (=?)
15b mc5s rb4w mc4w Dc3n
.    16w Ee5w Ed5w Dc4s Ec5w
.    .    16b mb4e mc4n Dc3n ha6e
.    .    .    17w mc5e Eb5e md5e Ec5e (=)
15b hg6e hh6w Rh5n ed4w
.    16w Ee5e Ef5e Eg5w hg6s
.    .    16b ec4e Dc3n rg7s ce7s
.    .    .    17w Ef5w Ee5w ce6s Rh6n (?)

 
So far I am leaning towards arimaa_master's suggestion, but I could easily be convinced otherwise.
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #11 on: Oct 7th, 2007, 7:24pm »
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In general terms,
 
Both sides have the same long term advantage, a dragged rabbit. If we make a passive move, the best we can expect to get is an equal position.
 
Silver's path to advantage requires overloading the gold elephant by creating a double threat. Silver will eventually threaten a rabbit capture on f6, so that is one threat. We need to create another threat. I can see a couple ways to go about this, but there are likely more. One way is to try and capture something in the c6 trap. Another way is to try and take control of the c3 trap. Gold's previous move tried to prevent these two ideas.
 
This position has alot of moves that look reasonable to me at first glance, so I suggest we take some time on this move.
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #12 on: Oct 9th, 2007, 2:02pm »
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on Oct 7th, 2007, 7:24pm, jdb wrote:
This position has alot of moves that look reasonable to me at first glance, so I suggest we take some time on this move.

Quite right.  It is a tricky move with many possibilities.  But I suggest we start voting now.  I've posted my thoughts, and nobody disagrees, so waiting is pointless.  We're just running down our clock by not voting immediately.
 
Just kidding, of course.  What I mean to say is that I miss the way mdk used to find holes in all my analysis and propose alternatives.
« Last Edit: Oct 9th, 2007, 2:04pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

UruramTururam
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #13 on: Oct 9th, 2007, 5:33pm »
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on Oct 6th, 2007, 3:33pm, Fritzlein wrote:
My first thought for a response was 15b ed4w rb4w ec4w Dc3n, but if chessandgo decides to play merry-go-round with his horse and dog, he will eventually force us to deviate to avoid repetition.

15b ed4w rb4w ec4w Dc3n ?! <-= The more I look at it the more I like it!
 
Surely C&G may try to swap his horse and dog again and ad mortam defecatem as that's us who are to repeat the position.
 
But what if he really plays:
16w Hb3e Dc3w Db4s ra4e ?
 
Well all the analysis we've made here so far will still be valid, but with one small difference: there will be a gold dog on b3, and not a horse, making gold position slightly weaker.
 
The question is then - if we play like that does he have any stronger answer?
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Re: Move 15
« Reply #14 on: Oct 9th, 2007, 9:24pm »
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on Oct 9th, 2007, 2:02pm, Fritzlein wrote:

Quite right.  It is a tricky move with many possibilities.  But I suggest we start voting now.  I've posted my thoughts, and nobody disagrees, so waiting is pointless.  We're just running down our clock by not voting immediately.
 
Just kidding, of course.  What I mean to say is that I miss the way mdk used to find holes in all my analysis and propose alternatives.

 
I miss it too but real life (aka first half of senior year of high school + college applications + scholarships applications) has a way of taking away any free time I have. I'll try and find some time later tonight/early this morning but I wouldn't count on it.
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