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   Move 36
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   Author  Topic: Move 36  (Read 3812 times)
RonWeasley
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Move 36
« on: Jul 14th, 2008, 7:28am »
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chessandgo is using considerable time on this move.  Does this mean he doesn't know of a winning line at this point?  Or maybe he sees only complicated lines near the primary variations.  Anyway, this is better than getting a two hour response that guarantees us losing a horse.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #1 on: Jul 14th, 2008, 7:47am »
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Also it is clear chessandgo isn't taking a long time just because he is on vacation.  In the same time span that he has been pondering his Mob move, he responded in both of my postal games in under a day.  Of course, that may not be an indication that he is in trouble in the Mob game so much as an indication that he's crushing me positionally in our Postal Mixer games.  Cry
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99of9
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #2 on: Jul 14th, 2008, 5:53pm »
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jdb predicted a long think from Jean. I agree that it's a good sign for us, but it also means his eventual move will be well thought through, so we must take care on our next play.
 
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #3 on: Jul 16th, 2008, 7:27am »
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This morning chessandgo moved in all his postal games where it was his move (four or five games), but not in the Mob game.   Does he care more about winning the Mob game?  Is it less obvious what he should do?
 
I suspect part of the equation is that chessandgo knows he can easily build his reserve back up to maximum, so he feels more free to procrastinate.  His long think is probably at least partially due to the fact that it doesn't hurt him in future moves to burn his whole reserve now.  He can think for 27:23:59:59 and still have plenty of time next move.
 
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mistre
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #4 on: Jul 20th, 2008, 6:56pm »
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Still no move - down to 7 days in reserve.  True, he could burn all his reserve and still have 7 days for the next move, but if we can continue with another unclear line he might have to rush more than he would like.
 
I'd expect a move in the next few days.
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99of9
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #5 on: Jul 20th, 2008, 7:38pm »
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Unwittingly chessandgo is allowing Fritz the time to finish his book and redirect the full force of his attention back into the Mob?
 
I know it's too early to start talking about the end of this game.  But, seeing some claims that Fritz is a long way ahead of the rest of the community, I hope that he will be the opponent in the next Mob game.  What do you think Karl?
 
Speaking of contributors, I wonder if Arimanator is interested in joining the mob?  I think your penchant for analyzing endgames might be valuable soon.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #6 on: Jul 20th, 2008, 8:16pm »
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My dominance will be called into question if I lose both of my Postal Mixer games to chessandgo.  However, even if chessandgo proves again that he's the best postally, I'm open to being The One in a Mob game, if only for variety.  When all of my Postal Mixer games are over and we have won this game (which may take months) I'll volunteer to be ganged up on.
 
Meanwhile chessandgo's delay on this move is a brilliant strategy.  He has taken so long, I have totally forgotten how we intended to counter various possible moves of his, which look rather crushing now that I glance at the position again.  If chessandgo ends up beating The Mob, I think he should be required to be The One again and give us a rematch.
« Last Edit: Jul 20th, 2008, 8:16pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

warren
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #7 on: Jul 21st, 2008, 6:24am »
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on Jul 20th, 2008, 8:16pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Meanwhile chessandgo's delay on this move is a brilliant strategy.  He has taken so long, I have totally forgotten how we intended to counter various possible moves of his, which look rather crushing now that I glance at the position again.

Chessandgo will run out of time eons before the game tree on page 2 of the move 35 thread forgets!
 
on Jun 22nd, 2008, 10:38am, warren wrote:
Different moves for us (35b) are separated by =.
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warren
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #8 on: Jul 23rd, 2008, 4:26pm »
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He has 4.5 days left on his clock, so he's sure to move no later than next Monday.
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Gerenuk
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #9 on: Jul 26th, 2008, 4:39am »
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36w Rd2n Rd3e Rc2e Rd2n
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #10 on: Jul 26th, 2008, 7:58am »
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on Jul 26th, 2008, 4:39am, Gerenuk wrote:
36w Rd2n Rd3e Rc2e Rd2n

Thanks for the heads up, Gerenuk.  Now we can get to work.  (By the way, it seems like your picture is password protected, so every time I try to view your post I am asked for a password.)
 
on Jul 21st, 2008, 6:24am, warren wrote:
Chessandgo will run out of time eons before the game tree on page 2 of the move 35 thread forgets!

That's right, we still have the game tree.  The game tree doesn't forget.  And what the game tree says about chessandgo's actual move is...
 
<nothing>
 
Once again chessandgo plays a completely unanticipated move.  Oh, well, there is something to be said for approaching each new position with an open mind and no preconceptions!  Smiley  Probably that means I will oscillate for about a week between supreme confidence that chessandgo will shortly have to resign, and utter despair because we are the ones on the brink of defeat.   Tongue
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #11 on: Jul 26th, 2008, 8:30am »
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on Jul 26th, 2008, 7:58am, Fritzlein wrote:

Thanks for the heads up, Gerenuk.  Now we can get to work.  (By the way, it seems like your picture is password protected, so every time I try to view your post I am asked for a password.)

Oh, I forgot that the server was reconfigured.
 
on Jul 26th, 2008, 7:58am, Fritzlein wrote:

That's right, we still have the game tree.  The game tree doesn't forget.  And what the game tree says about chessandgo's actual move is...
<nothing>
Once again chessandgo plays a completely unanticipated move.

 
I'm surprised chessandgo can surprise so much. Unfortunately I don't have time to practice Arimaa, so I do very stupid blunders occationally, but maybe I can contribute suggestions for chessandgo's counter moves as I haven't been surprised by his moves so much.
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #12 on: Jul 26th, 2008, 8:30am »
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Interesting position...
 
My first thought: ef2w ee2w Rd3w ed2n
 
I was also thinking about something like Cg3e dg2n ?? ?? but I have no idea what the ??s could be.
« Last Edit: Jul 26th, 2008, 8:32am by UruramTururam » IP Logged

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Re: Move 36
« Reply #13 on: Jul 26th, 2008, 10:16am »
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Here's my first pass at analysis.  Since we didn't anticipate chessandgo's particular move, I had to go back and remind myself what we were expecting from him strategically.
 
Option A: Chessandgo could have played to give up on capturing our horse, and instead grabbed our dog and defended f3 with his elephant.  That would have left us up CRR for D.  He didn't do this, so I infer he is still holding out for a material advantage.  
 
Option B: Chessandgo could have grabbed our dog as part of a capture race where he ends up getting our horse.  We couldn't stop him from winning our horse eventually, so the cricital part of our calculation on our last move was that we get goal if he starts capturing immediately and continues until he has the horse.  This was the idea we spent most of our time on.
 
Option C: Chessandgo could embrace the capture race, but play first to delay our capturing around f3 long enough to win him time to capture around c3 and still get his elephant home before we force goal in the east.  This is what he has chosen to do.
 
What I notice right off the bat is that the rabbit chessandgo put on d3 is in the way of his elephant for crossing west to east.  If he felt like initating captures starting next move, then the move he just made costs him time.  It doesn't make sense as a part of the racing plan, "I'll defend for one move, then start capturing."  Therefore I infer that he intends to defend the f3-trap on his next move as well.  Of course, before we race we still need to look at lines where he captures beginning next move, but it seems extremely likely that if we were OK on that race before, we will be in better shape now, because of his delay-causing rabbit on d3.
 
Therefore I looked first at continuing our race as planned, assuming that chessandgo must defend f3 on his next move as well.  The results greatly encouraged me.  It seems that if he tries to defend with just rabbits (not including his d4-dog), we are in fine shape.  If he does defend with his dog, he has more move options, but I can't make any of them work out for him.  In short, the strategy implied by chessandgo's move appears inadequate.  Therefore we are on the brink of victory.  Smiley
 
Some lines:
36b Cg3e dg2n rg6s rg5s
.    37w Re3n Re4e Rd3e Rc1n
.    .    37b dg3w df3e Rf4s rg4w
.    .    .    38w Dd4e De4w rf4w Rf3n
.    .    .    .    38b dg3w Re3s df3w de3w
.    37w Dd4e De4e Rc1n Rd3n
.    .    37b ef2n Df4n ef3n dc4n
.    .    .    38w Eb3e hb2n Ec3n hb3e hc3x
.    .    .    .    38b Df5n Df6x ef4n ef5s dc5n
.    .    .    38w Re3n Re4n Df5e Da3n
.    .    .    .    38b ef4s ef3s rg4w rf4w
.    37w Dd4e De4e Re3e Rd3n
.    .    37b Rd4s dc4e rd5e re5s
.    .    .    38w Rc1e Rd1n Rd3e Rd2n
.    .    .    .    38b rb5e rc5s Rd3s dd4s
.    .    .    38w Rc1n Eb3e Rd3e Ec3w
.    .    .    .    38b rb5e rc5s dd4s ce7s
.    .    .    .    .    39w Eb3e Ec3w rc4s Hf1w
.    .    .    .    .    .    39b ef2w ee2w He1n ce6s

 
I should mention also that if we end in a position where we are not able to make immediate captures, but neither is he, we should be in great shape merely by virtue of being a cat and a rabbit ahead already.
 
Now I need to go look at what mean things chessandgo did to me in our Postal Mixer games...
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Re: Move 36
« Reply #14 on: Jul 27th, 2008, 5:20am »
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36b Cg3e dg2n rg6s rg5s  
 
This looks like a logical move to look at. It puts the most pressure on Gold's position.
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